The worst 'expert' flubs
Most critical is for the leader to realize that experts don't have a perfect track record. Far from it. If you're not already skeptical of expert opinion, glance over these doozies:
-Lord Kelvin, the president of Great Britain's Royal Society, confidently predicted in 1895 that "heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
-Yale University expert economist Irving Fisher proclaimed in 1929 that "stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
-IBM Chairman Thomas Watson predicted in 1958, ''I think there is a world market for about five computers." Or Kenneth Olson, founder of Digital Equipment, in 1977: "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home." And even the remarkable Bill Gates, who said that "640K [ of memory] ought to be enough for anyone."
-My favorite, from my long-accumulated list of expert belly flops, is from that expert of experts, Commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office Charles Duell, who announced to the nation in 1899 that "everything that can be invented has been invented."
Posted by: wildcat1 | September 29, 2010 4:02 PM
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