The League

When forecasting upcoming prospects for teams, strength of schedule is often used as a benchmark for the ease or difficulty with which a team will navigate a full season, or an important run down the stretch. But simple won-loss records tell an incomplete story, at best. The Baltimore Ravens currently stand at 5-4, but they've outscored their opponents, 222-154, and they've lost their four games by a total of 21 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars also stand at 5-4, despite being outscored, 220-181, and losing their four games by a total of 74 points. But these teams look the same in the won-loss column, which is why we need a better measuring stick.

Enter DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), Football Outsiders' per-play stat that measures drive and scoring efficiency, adjusted for opponent. The idea with our statistics is to weigh the real value of plays, and the wins and losses that result from that efficiency, with a more discerning eye. Teams can win or lose in an infinite number of ways - the goal here is to tell the whole story. Compare and contrast the Ravens, ranked fifth in DVOA to the 18th-ranked Jaguars, and those 5-4 records get a bit of separation.

Of the current division leaders, the Arizona Cardinals have the second-easiest remaining schedule - only the Cinderella Bengals have an easier go. The Colts and Patriots, who battled so well last Sunday, have the 15th and 16th-toughest, respectively. The Vikings and Saints rank 20th and 22th in remaining schedule toughness, which makes the NFC home field advantage derby very interesting. Denver has the 27th-toughest, and Dallas is 17th. At this rate, we could see some divisional races wrapped up before December 1!

Here's a closer look at the challenges facing the remaining playoff-possible teams:

AFC

Indianapolis Colts (9-0)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.6% (16th)

The Colts face an interesting complement of teams in the next month -- there's the Ravens this Sunday and the Broncos on December 13. In between those contests, there's a rematch with the Houston Texans, who almost beat them two weeks ago, and the Titans, who are slowly raising their game after am 0-6 start. Sleepers abound, but there isn't a team the Colts can't handle if they're on their game.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)
Future Schedule DVOA: -24.5% (32nd)

Well, how's this for easy? Cincy's reward for sweeping the Ravens and Steelers is a remaining schedule that includes the noted Oakland/Cleveland/Detroit trifecta over the next three weeks. if you combined those three teams, the assembled monstrosity probably couldn't outscore or outgain the Bengals' second team. They have the Vikings and Chargers back-to-back starting in mid-December, but they finish off with the Chiefs and Jets.

Denver Broncos (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -5.6 (27th)

With three straight losses and questions about the health of starting quarterback Kyle Orton, the Broncos could use a few marshmallows on the docket. Problem is, they get them in fits and starts -- after the Chargers and Giants, they get the Colts with the Raiders and Chiefs on either side. Denver closes out with the Eagles and Chiefs. It's a run that mirrors their season -- equal amounts encouragement and uncertainty.

New England Patriots (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.8% (15th)

With Tom Brady looking more and more like ... well, TOM BRADY and the Pats' defense starting to round into shape, this would be a good time for New England to look for a higher seed. They have the Jets, Dolphins, and Panthers in the next month, but they also face the Saints in two weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -6.4% (28th)

The Steelers have been up and down all year -- dominant with Troy Polamalu's healthy, and entirely beatable when he isn't. Questions about Polamalu's knee are silenced a bit when you consider that Pittsburgh faces the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in the next month, with only a second-place fight with the Ravens to break up the monotony. They've got a second go-round with the Ravens two days after Christmas, and there will be nothing joyous for the loser of that game with the Bengals sitting atop the AFC North.

San Diego Chargers (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -6.9% (29th)

Norv Turner's Bolts are playing Denver for the division lead this Sunday, and they're on a four-win streak. They still have the Browns, Chiefs, Titans and eminently beatable Redskins on their calendar. It's a good regular-season end run before their traditional postseason debacling.

NFC

New Orleans Saints (9-0)
Future Schedule DVOA: -2.6% (22nd)

The Saints haven't looked terrible impressive lately, but they have two remaining games with the downtrodden Buccaneers, and favorable matchups with the Redskins and Panthers. On the other hand, their Monday Night game with the Pats in the Superdome on November 30 has "upset" written all over it.

Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
Future Schedule DVOA: -1.2% (20th)

Favre's Darlings still have two meetings with the Bears, which is good news for an opportunistic defense -- perhaps Jay Cutler will still be on his five-pick-per-game jags. The Seahawks don't present much of a threat, and the Panthers and Cardinals are beatable. The question-mark games come against the Bengals and in the season finale against the Giants -- New York might be fighting for a playoff berth, and the Vikings may be resting their starter at that point.

Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: 2.3% (17th)

We're not sure what's happened to Dallas' running game, but they have two games in the next week in which to find it, and both (Redskins this Sunday and Raiders on Thanksgiving) should be wins for a team on a hot streak. It's the three-game stretch after that -- against the Giants, Chargers, and Saints -- that will tell us if Wade's 'Boys are the real thing.

Arizona Cardinals (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -16.3% (31st)

Did someone say "vacation"? It's never a good idea to discount your future opponents, but the next two weeks look pretty good for Arizona, with the Rams and Titans coming up. Then, it's a couple of tougher spots with the Vikings and 49ers, followed by the Lions, Rams (again) and Packers. If the cards don't tank it royally the way they did at the end of the 2008 regular season, they should be in good shape. Then again, they did manage to stagger their way to a near-Super Bowl win...

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.9% (14th)

Here's the team nobody wants to face if they have it all together. The Iggles have the Bears, Redskins and Falcons upcoming, three chances to make hay while the sun shines. After that, things start to clamp down, with the Giants, 49ers, Broncos, and Cowboys in rapid succession.

New York Giants
Future Schedule DVOA: 13.1% (2nd)

Ouch. Only the Panthers have a tougher go the rest of the way according to DVOA. The G-Men still have the Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings to deal with -- bad news for a team that's lost four straight.

Last week, we looked at Adjusted Line Yards, Football Outsiders' proprietary statistic, for different NFL offenses. ALY assigns responsibility and value to offensive lines based on the length of a run, the situation, and the opponent. We then drilled down with situational stats that reveal each team's ability to break long plays, extend drives, and avoid negative plays. When you put all those stats together, you get a more complete picture of a line's value to a team.

In that same spirit, we have ALY and other numbers for defensive lines, and the principle is the same. The first step is to separate actual yard per carry from line yards by factoring in play value by situation. Then, we add the percentage of yards on running plays that are 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. Power and Stuffed stats illustrate how well defensive lines prevent opposing offenses from creating first downs and touchdowns in short-yardage situations (Power) and put offenses in the hole with negative plays (Stuffed).

The Arizona Cardinals have held the top spot in ALY for most of the season, but after giving up an average of 149 rushing yards in their last three games, they've given way to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and their ALY of 3.19 yards per carry. Pittsburgh also leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.29). The Cardinals still cause the most negative plays in the game - 31 percent of runs against them are stuffed at or behind the line. No team has allowed fewer conversions or scoring plays on third- or fourth-and-short than the New England Patriots - they stop those plays 43 percent of the time. And if you're looking to bust a big running play, avoid the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed running plays of 10 or more yards only six percent of the time.

Certain teams are just better at bottling up run plays at the line. In addition to the Steelers up top, there's also the Cardinals (3.19 ALY), the Ravens (3.32), Eagles (3.36), and Giants (3.34). As with Offensive ALY, the difference between Adjusted and standard yards can reveal some interesting things.

Teams with similar ALY and YPC are generally good from the line of scrimmage out -- the Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals, Falcons, and Panthers are all in the top ten rank when it comes to fewest percentage of yards allowed beyond the 10-yard mark. These are the teams that don't allow big plays. Correspondingly, teams like the Giants and Texans, who allow almost a yard per carry more in standard yardage, are prone to giving up highlight-reel stuff. The Giants have the NFL's worst 10+ ranking, with a full 33 percent of their rushing yards allowed outside that mark. When you factor in their pass defense, it's reasonable to say that New York's secondary is the thing that could keep them out of the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Giants have an interesting defensive disconnect -- only the Cards have created more negative plays. One in four running plays against the Giants go absolutely nowhere, and it's the same with the Packers, Eagles, and Steelers.

Power success might be the most important stat on paper -- it's based on the percentage allowed of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Any "and goal" situation is also included -- if you stop first-and-goal or second-and-goal, that counts just the same. If you can prevent plays that extend drives and increase scoring chances, odds are you're ahead of the pack. At least, that's what you'd assume -- in addition to the Patriots and Vikings, the Redskins, Lions, and Jaguars are in the top five of fewest Power plays allowed.

The other side of Power is how many big plays of any kind your defense allows -- sometimes, your defense's ability to stand in fewer of those situations simply means that opposing offenses can light you up like a Christmas tree. The Denver Broncos have one of the stingiest defenses in the league, but teams have a 76 percent Power success rate against them. That's why you have to look at the whole picture and how different line stats tell us different things.

One of the primary goals of football sabermetrics is also one of its main challenges -- separating individual efforts in the ultimate team sport. Even skill position players depend so much on the efforts of others -- quarterbacks on receivers, running backs on offensive lines, linebackers on the defensive tackles who soak up double-teams and let them shoot the gaps. At Football Outsiders, we've put together a number of proprietary statistics to focus on the importance of line play on both sides of the ball. Adjusted Line Yards, which takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on yardage gained, is the primary stat. We then separate line yards per carry from running back yards per carry.

The 10+ Yards stat separates yardage on plays 10 or more yards downfield -- this places more credit on the shoulder of the running back as he's making plays away from the line. Power and Stuffed stats indicate team success in specific short-yardage and red-zone situations. All FO stats are then adjusted for opponent strength.

Through Week 8 of the 2009 season, the Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards (4.64 per carry) and rank second in running back yards per carry (5.39). The Tennessee Titans rank first in rushing plays of 10 yards or more, but they're 20th in ALY (3.83), and that's over two yards less per carry than their league-leading running back yards per carry (5.98). Their backs are doing most of the work. The Miami Dolphins rank first in Power, meaning that they're best at converting drive-extending or scoring plays in short-yardage situations. The Dolphins also prevent their backs from getting caught behind the line of scrimmage better than any other team.

Which other teams are getting more help from their backs than their lines? And which teams are sunk on the ground without their blockers?

The Titans lead the NFL with an amazing 40 percent of running plays over 10 yards, and the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars aren't far behind at 37 percent each. Teams high on this list share the one common advantage -- dynamic running backs who can make things happen in space. The Kansas City Chiefs aren't on the second list, but they have put up the following ignominious stat: Only eight percent ofhtie running plays have been for 10 yards or more. The Browns, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions (10 percent each) aren't much better. Here's where you find plodders behind lines that would have any running back struggling to succeed.

What about pure smashmouth? Which teams are best at converting short-yardage situations? Let's go back to our Power and Stuffed rankings to find out. Power tells us which teams are best and worst at moving the chains, and drive success is at the root of our stats.

MIA 88%
PHI 83%
ATL 82%
OAK 80%
NYJ 79%

It's pretty amazing, when you think about it. When the Miami Dolphins run on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, they achieve a first down or touchdown 88 percent of the time. Compare and contrast with the bottom-feeders on this list -- starting with the San Diego Chargers, whose red-zone troubles have been well-documented. Here's where it shows up.

SD 35%
BUF 43%
GB 50%
CLE 50%
MIN 54%

Our Stuffed ranking basically works in conjunction with Power, indicating which teams are forced into no-gain or negative plays most and least often.

MIA 13%
PHI 14%
NE 15%
BAL 16%
NYJ 16%

What this tells us is that not only do the Dolphins, Eagles, and Jets transcend the norm when it comes to extending drives, they're just as good at avoiding backslides on every down. Hmmm... maybe Andy Reid should call more running plays?

To further separate the efforts of the offensive line, we keep track of Adjusted Line Yards to each of five areas counted by the NFL's official play-by-play. The table construction gets a bit complex for our size constraints here, but you can check this info out every week at Football Outsiders.

No matter how microscopic we get with stat separation, we're limited by the team aspect of football -- the very thing that makes it great is what stops the kind of statistical analysis you find in a station-to-station sport like baseball, where the efforts of one are less interdependent on the work of others. But Adjusted Line Yards, and the ancillary stats around them, provide important information we can use to see what really passes the eye test.

When the Chicago Bears sent a 2010 second-round draft pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for defensive end Gaines Adams, there were many justifiable questions about the price the Bears paid. Adams was the top prospect at his position in the 2007 NFL Draft, having amassed 28 sacks at Clemson, including 22 in his final two collegiate seasons. But he became a disappointment over his early NFL career, with 12.5 total sacks in 2007 and 2008, and only one in 2009. Bucs head coach Raheem Morris intimated that Adams would be a "bust" if he didn't put up double-digit sacks in his third season, but a quick look at the NFL's sack leaders over the last decade tells us that it usually takes time to develop a great pass rusher.

Nine different players have led the NFL in sacks in the last decade -- only Michael Strahan has taken the award twice. Through Week 7 of the 2009 season, Denver's Elvis Dumervil leads the league with 10 quarterback takedowns. And of those sack leaders, only six put up 10 or more sacks in their third season. Strahan, who holds the current NFL record for sacks in a season with 22.5 in 2001, didn't reach double digits until his fifth season. It takes more time for professional defensive ends to develop because the blocking schemes are far more varied and sophisticated, and the offensive linemen are generally much better than the ones those ends faced in college game after game. Before labeling Adams a failure, it's best to exercise patience -- after all, only one member of the 2007 defensive class, Michigan's LaMarr Woodley, has put up more than 10 sacks in an NFL season -- 11.5 for the 2008 Steelers.

To look more specifically at players with similar career arcs to Adams', I turned to Football Outsiders compadre Vince Verhei, who's been working on Defensive Similarity Scores for a while. As Vince tells us, "Similiarity Scores were invented by Bill James for analyzing baseball players and have since been adapted and used by many others. For Football Outsiders' Defensive Similarity Scores, players are measured in 22 different statistical categories, some basic (height, weight, sacks, interceptions) and some advanced (Defeats, Stop Rate, Total Plays). When determining the Similarity Score between two players, we start with 1,000 points. We then subtract points for differences in those 22 categories. Each sack, for example, is worth a 2-point penalty.

"So if Player A has three sacks and Player B has 10, that seven-sack difference will result in a 14-point penalty. The penalty for each statistic is based on its frequency and predictive value. Our most predictive statistic (Total Successes) carries twice as much weight as our least predictive statistic (Pass Stop Rate). Finally, we can calculate Similarity Scores for the last two years or last three years of a player's career. As Gaines Adams has only been in the league for two years, these are his two-year scores."

The five most similar players to Adams, based on these scores:

Chike Okeafor, 2002 San Francisco 49ers/2003 Seattle Seahawks

Okeafor was selected in the third round of the 1999 draft by the 49ers, and 2002 was the first season in which he started 16 games. He signed with the Seahawks as a free agent before the 2003 season. He amassed a total of 5.5 sacks in his first three non-starting seasons, and topped out at 8.5 sacks in a single season in 2004 and 2006.

Aaron Schobel, 2002 Buffalo Bills

2002 was Schobel's second year in the league -- he was drafted by the bills in the second round in 2001 -- and the first season in which he started all 16 games. He put up 8.5 sacks that year, and 11.5 in 2003. From 2003 through 2006, he averaged 11.375 sacks per season.

Shaun Ellis, 2002 New York Jets

Ellis was drafted 12th overall in 2000 by the Jets, and 2002 was his second season of 16-game starts. He had four sacks in '02, and his totals then exploded to 12.5 in 2003 and 11.0 in 2004.

Tony Bryant, 2001 Oakland Raiders

Drafted in the second round in 1999, Bryant never got his career off the ground. 2000 was his best season with 5.5 sacks.

Alex Brown, 2003 Chicago Bears

Adams' new linemate rounds out the list. The Bears selected Brown in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, and his somewhat disappointing sack totals are one reason Chicago went looking elsewhere for pass rush reinforcements. His best season has been 2006, when he put up seven sacks.

Trends and similarities can only take the analysis so far, of course, in the end, it comes down to individual talent and scheme fit. Adams joins a team that currently ranks 24th in Football Outsiders' Defensive Adjusted Sack Rate statistic, coming from a team currently ranked 21st. Can he validate the trade, or has he now impacted the draft futures of two NFL teams? History tells us that it's not unreasonable to assume that we haven't seen Gaines Adams' best football yet.

Does it seem that there have been more roughing-the-passer penalties in 2009 than in recent seasons? That has indeed been the case, but everything is not what it seems. Through the first six weeks of this season, there have been 35 roughing calls, or 5.83 per week. That stands in sharp contrast to the 59 overall in 2008 (3.47 per week over 17 weeks), 61 in 2007 (3.59), and you'd have to back to 2006 to find an equivalent average (110 overall, or 6.0 per week). The 2005 numbers prove that it's hardly a "new focus" -- there were 127 roughing calls in that season, or an average of 7.47 per week. The total was even higher in 2004; 135 overall and 7.94 per week.

So, the "new emphasis" is less that and more a return to form. It also puts a hole in the theory that the NFL has been enforcing more quarterback protection each year; this is instead a more common theme among officiating trends. Every year, the league's Competition Committee alters the focus officials are supposed to put on specific fouls. Wild year-to-year swings in penalty numbers frequently have to do with organic drop-offs in calls over time, and the NFL's subsequent realization that "X" amount of protection is good for the game. The "Brady Rule" has put the focus on a roughing-the-passer "overemphasis", but 2009 isn't the NFL's first go-round with the concept.

After the Baltimore Ravens made some pointed comments about the NFL possibly being focused in their general direction with those flags, but if the league actually does have a target, it resides further south. The Tennessee Titans have four roughing calls so far in 2009, tied with Baltimore for the NFL lead, and the Titans also led the league in 2008 and 2007.

So the next time you hear a player or announcer insist that the refs are calling roughing the passer in a more ticky-tack fashion than ever before... the truth is, the NFL has a ways to go to exceed the number of calls just a few years ago. What's happening now is simple regression to the mean -- no matter how we get there.

Quarterback protection has been a hot topic in the early part of the 2009 season. The Baltimore Ravens' October 4 loss to the New England Patriots was marked by two ticky-tack roughing-the-passer penalties -- one against nose tackle Haloti Ngata and one against end/linebacker Terrell Suggs. In both cases, the contact appeared to be borderline incidental, and Suggs looked like he was trying to avoid contact with quarterback Tom Brady's knees when he dove to Brady's right. Each call gave the Patriots 15 extra yards and helped facilitate two touchdown drives. The Ravens were not happy after the fact.

Last Sunday night, the Tennessee Titans were flagged for two roughing calls in the same second-quarter drive as they tried to defend Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. The first call against end Kyle Vanden Bosch came after Vanden Bosch beat a double team and grazed Manning's legs with incidental contact. And the call against end Jacob Ford came when Ford hit Manning with his arm after being pushed in that direction by tackle Ryan Diem.

Why so touchy? When Brady was lost for the 2008 season in New England's opener against the Kansas City Chiefs, Bernard Pollard's tackle led the NFL's Competition Committee to alter quarterback protection to what is now known as the "Brady Rule" - an edict which dictates that "a rushing defender is prohibited from forcibly hitting in the knee area or below a passer who has one or both feet on the ground, even if the initial contact is above the knee. It is not a foul if the defender is blocked (or fouled) into the passer and has no opportunity to avoid him."

Baltimore had been penalized twice in 2009 for roughing before the Patriots game, but the Titans hadn't seen a single call all year until they faced Manning. Is the NFL's increased focus on quarterback safety allowing a disproportionate amount of protection to its star quarterbacks? Through the first four weeks of the 2009 season, the data is inconclusive. The Patriots have drawn three roughing calls, tied for the NFL lead with the Buffalo Bills, whose quarterback, Trent Edwards, will never be confused with Brady or Manning. And going back through five full years of penalty data tells us that roughing calls have been surprisingly unbiased.

That's only one Brady in the bunch, and the only Manning on the list is Peyton's brother, Eli. The data for roughing calls among teams with split starters is either even or slanted by one call to one starter or the other, so it isn't as if officiating crews felt a great and pressing need to protect Alex Smith over Trent Dilfer in 2007. You could say that 2008 leans a bit heavier on the marquee side, but overall, it's a difficult argument to make. Given the data we have, it does look as if the NFL has been reasonable and fair in its implementation of the roughing-the-passer rule, as opposed to throwing more flags when star quarterbacks are threatened. Where that takes us in 2009, with the Brady Rule in full effect, could be a completely different story.

Next week, we'll turn the tables and see if, as the Ravens have suggested, certain defenses are targeted for roughing and unnecessary roughness penalties over time.

Last week, we detailed the problems associated with the NFL's most disappointing teams, and the real (or at least secondary) reasons for their failures. But for every team that's fallen off the map, there's a surprise team, or a team that has outperformed their expectations. One team in particular has left the league amazed.

Denver Broncos (4-0)

Preseason Expectations: Chaos, destruction, and pain. Pat Bowlen surprised the NFL by firing longtime coach Mike Shanahan and hiring Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and McDaniels surprised most everybody by going on a bit of a rampage. After trying unsuccessfully to engineer a trade for Matt Cassel, McDaniels and Bowlen were left with a very unhappy Jay Cutler. They traded Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton and several draft picks. Little of note was done to restock a defense that finished 31st in DVOA in 2008, and the first-round pick of running back Knowshon Moreno went against Denver's longtime philosophy of great offensive lines and disposable running backs. This team was seen as a disaster waiting to happen.

Why They're Winning: The benefits of an easy schedule and one enormously lucky break cannot be discounted. The Broncos beat the Bengals opening week on the "Immaculate Deflection" touchdown to Brandon Stokley, and their other victories have come against the terrible Browns and Raiders, then the inconsistent Cowboys last Sunday. Still, the defense has benefited from one very valuable addition -- former 49ers head coach and Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who has done the near-impossible in transitioning a weak 4-3 squad into a very effective 3-4 unit.

New Orleans Saints (4-0)

Preseason Expectations: Great offense, woeful defense, in a "lather, rinse, repeat" formula that has plagued the WhoDats through the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. In 2008, New Orleans ranked fourth in Offensive DVOA and 26th in Defensive DVOA. Their pass defense has been particularly woeful in recent years.

Why They're Winning:The Saints finally waived longtime liability Jason David at cornerback, and new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is dialing up creative pressure packages that allow the secondary to breathe once in a while as opposed to hanging back in coverage too long. Through four games in 2009, the Saints have 10 sacks after putting up only 28 last season. Veteran safety Darren Sharper leads the league with five interceptions, and in their win over the Jets last Sunday, New Orleans' defense outscored its offense. That's the recipe for success the Saints' faithful has been hoping for.

New York Giants (4-0)

Preseason Expectations: It's not as if the G-Men were expected to take a big slide -- after all, they ranked in the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive DVOA last year and they took the NFC East -- but there were questions about the post-Plaxico receiver corps and a front seven with a lot of new blood.

Why They're Winning: First, the loss of Plaxico wasn't the death blow people thought. According to Football Outsiders' Bill Barnwell, the Giants actually had a better Offensive DVOA (27.8%) then when he was available (20.6%). And now, the team's unheralded new receivers are starting to take over. Against the Chiefs last Sunday, (the other) Steve Smith's 11-catch, 134-yard, two-touchdown game made him the third-most valuable receiver of the week, according to FO's DYAR numbers. And through three weeks, Mario Manningham had the seventh-best DYAR among all receivers for the season.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

Preseason Expectations: Between the "Hard Knocks" curse and the usual front office buffoonery, it seemed like another lost season for the Bengals -- almost by default.

Why They're Winning: The acquisition of running back Cedric Benson has been an unexpected boon, and the Carson Palmer-to-Chad Ochocinco combo is hot again. But it's as much about the under-the-radar guys. Running back Brian Leonard making plays when they're needed. Andre Caldwell making key receptions. The offensive and defensive lines performing at a level we haven't seen since Cincinnati's last playoff berth in 2005. If they can knock off the Ravens next Sunday in Baltimore, they'll have the top of the AFC North all to themselves, and should be taken seriously as a real contender.

New York Jets (3-1)

Preseason Expectations: Fair-to-middling. Prognosticators respected new head coach Rex Ryan from his days as Baltimore's defensive coordinator, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez got a lot of pre- and post-draft love from the analysts, but the fallout of the post-Mangini/Favre drama left the team in an uncertain state.

Why They're Winning: The Ryan defense has been everything the franchise could have hoped for; it's a nasty, complex monster that has confused every quarterback facing it. Through four games, the Jets are third-best in quarterback rating allowed (behind two other surprise teams -- the Saints and Broncos). Sanchez lived up to the hype through this first three games, playing efficiently if not spectacularly, until the New Orleans blitz upended him last Sunday. It was a bad day for a good rookie. Make no mistake, though -- as with Ryan's Ravens, the Jets will go as far as their defense takes them.

San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

Preseason Expectations: Perhaps the best team in the NFC West, which is a bit like being the best musician in Warrant. The endless Michael Crabtree holdout hasn't worked out for either side -- San Francisco doesn't have a desperately needed offensive weapon, and the former Texas Tech receiver doesn't have an NFL career yet.

Why They're Winning: Like the Bengals, the 49ers are one miracle finish away from a spotless record -- in this case, Brett Favre's amazing back-of-the-endzone throw to Greg Lewis. That aside, this team has been playing at a level that is a testament to the motivational abilities of head coach Mike Singletary. Statistically, they've been great on defense -- 10th over all in Defensive DVOA after three weeks, and third against the run. The passing game is still a problem, but Shaun Hill has donned his best "Game Manager" hat and has done his best to lead the offense through the latest Frank Gore injury. More importantly, the defense is making key plays and stops, and capitalizing on that efficiency -- San Francisco's defense scored three times against the Rams last Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

Preseason Expectations: Through the seemingly endless preseason Brett Favre drama, the Vikings were thought to be biding their time for the Mississippi Diva for one reason -- the defense is incredible, and Adrian Peterson is one of the most amazing weapons in the game, but quarterback Tarvaris Jackson wore out his welcome after his terrible playoff performance against the Eagles.

Why They're Winning: Favre was the reason with the late throw to Lewis against the 49ers, but as much as he finally popped loose against the Packers on Monday Night Football, that game was more about the defense, and the suffocating pressure it put on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Favre will serve the Vikings best if he plays as a cog, not a superstar. He should follow the example of John Elway, late in his career, when the team around him was just as good as he was.

When teams with great expectations come out of the gate in true Three Stooges fashion, the subsequent finger-pointing is usually rampant, and not always directed at the real culprit. Frustration tends to trump analysis when the team you love can't buy a win and seems out of the playoff race before the season's first month is complete. In the interest of acknowledging the obvious when it applies to the situation and looking beyond the obvious, here are the real reasons that eight disappointing teams can't find their way.

Washington Redskins (1-2)

Surface Problems: Jim Zorn's coaching, and Jason Campbell in general.
Real Problem: The defense can't stop anyone on third down.

As under fire as they've been, you wonder if Zorn and Campbell dream of leaving their current team for an Albuquerque expansion franchise, "Any Given Sunday" - style. Some of the angst is justified - Zorn appears in over his head on the sidelines at times, and Campbell hasn't yet taken that next step - but the most glaring turnaround from 2008 to 2009 for the Redskins is on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the Redskins led the NFL in three-and-outs created with 32.7 percent. Through the first three games of this season, that high-priced Washington defense has allowed third-down conversions 51 percent of the time (22 made on 43 attempts). That was the real story in their 19-14 loss to the Lions; the Redskins allowed 10 of 18 successful third-down conversions, and the Lions enjoyed six first downs overall (conversions on all downs) in their 99-yard touchdown drive in the first quarter. Dan Snyder can replace Zorn and Campbell 100 times, but it won't stop the bleeding on Greg Blache's side of the ball.

Carolina Panthers (0-3)

Surface Problem: Quarterback Jake Delhomme has never recovered from his five-interception meltdown in last year's playoff loss to the Cardinals -- this season, he leads the NFL with seven interceptions in only 91 attempts.
Real Problem: Delhomme's downward spiral is not to be disregarded, but the Panthers' inability to stop the run is the invisible elephant in the living room. Through the first three weeks of the season, Carolina's formerly stout defense ranks 26th in Defensive DVOA, and 30th against the run. It's also possible that new defensive coordinator Ron Meeks' "bend-but-don't-break" scheme is causing the offense to press and go away from the rushing attack that defined them last season. Only five teams have fewer than the Panthers' 71 attempts.

Tennessee Titans (0-3)

Surface Problem: The loss of Albert Haynesworth doomed the Titans' defensive line to failure.
Real Problem: Tennessee actually ranks 11th in Defensive DVOA, third in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards, and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Johnson's 351 rushing yards ranks behind only Adrian Peterson's 357, but the passing game is average at best.The Titans lost their three games by a total of 13 points, and Jeff Fisher's squad is better than this.

Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Surface Problem: Dependence on the Wildcat has ripped the offense apart.
Real Problem: The concept of an over-reliance on gimmickry may apply to some offenses (hello, Philly!), but Miami's offense ranks near the bottom of the league with 4.7 yards per offensive play. In their direct snaps in 2009, the 'Fins have averaged 8.4 yards per play (117 yards on 14 plays).Where they run into trouble is when they dedicate quarterback Pat White to the option -- the rookie doesn't quite have the speed of the pro game down yet.

In the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, we talked about injury luck and turnover luck in the Miami chapter. Last year, the Dolphins led the league in turnover ratio (+17), and they're now near the bottom (-6, which ranks 30th). They benefitted from a roster that went through the 2008 season mostly healthy, and they've already lost quarterback Chad Pennington for the 2009 season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

Surface Problem: A pathetic offense. The Bucs gained a total of 86 yards and five first downs against the Giants last weekend, leading new head coach Raheem Morris to bench quarterback Byron Leftwich in favor of Josh Johnson.

Real Problem: Want an explosive offense in Tampa Bay? Go up against their defense. In their first two games alone, the Bucs gave up five passing touchdowns of 30 yards or more. The only reason that number didn't increase against the Giants is that Eli Manning didn't need to throw a pass longer than 24 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

Surface Problems:The two they overcame to win Super Bowl XLIII -- the offensive line and the running game.
Real Problem: The line might be even worse this year -- the Steelers currently rank 29th in Offensive Adjusted Line Yards and 17th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The issue right now is on the defensive side -- that formerly unassailable squad currently ranks 20th in Defensive DVOA against the pass and eighth against the run.

Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Surface Problem: The Super Bowl Loser's Curse, of course!
Real Problem: Well, no. The real problem is the offense, or the lack thereof. The Cards are scoring 19 points a game in 2008, as opposed to the 26.7 they put up last year. They're dead last in rushing attempts per game (19.0), yards per game (60.7), and near the bottom in yards per carry (3.2). That's less of a surprise than the passing numbers -- Arizona ranks 21st in Passing DVOA after ranking eighth last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Surface Problem: David Garrard hasn't bounced back to his 2007 form after a disappointing 2008.
Real Problem: Garrard is the blame-target in an unfinished and unfocused offense, but the Jags are giving up 281.7 passing yards per game, worst in the league. When your offense puts up 202.7 passing yards per game, you'd better have a dynamic rushing game, and the Jags are in danger of relying too much on Maurice Jones-Drew.

Two Sundays ago, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees set an opening day record with six touchdown passes against the Detroit Lions in a 45-27 win. There haven't been too many single-game performances better than his. Brees followed that up with an outstanding game against the Philadelphia Eagles - unlike Detroit's, a defense you can take seriously - and he looks very much like the quarterback who came 15 yards short of Dan Marino's single-season yardage record (5,084) last year.

But do incendiary single games lead to outstanding seasons at a rate that would lead us to take them seriously as indicators? Yes, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) metric, which gives a quarterback's value based on situation and opponent, compared to replacement level, and converted into yardage. Brees' 2009 debut gave him a DYAR of 300, which would put him in the all-time top ten. What this means is that Drew Brees, on that day, would be 300 yards more valuable than a league average quarterback. Since it's still early in the season, and we don't have opponent adjustments built in for 2009 yet, we can guess that Brees' DYAR will drop in proportion to Detroit's general inability to defend the pass. Our data goes back to the 1994 season, and as it stands right now, he'd rank behind five quarterbacks in our timeframe. Who are those players, and did their single games lead to greater things?

(Note: While we keep rushing DYAR totals for quarterbacks, these totals are for passing DYAR only).

1. Randall Cunningham, 1998 Minnesota Vikings
Single-game DYAR: 327
Season DYAR: 1,538 (1)

The best Passing DYAR game in our archives happened in Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers. Cunningham completed 20 passes in 32 attempts for 442 yards and four touchdowns. His Yards per Attempt total of 13.81 was the highest he ever achieved in a single game in his career with over 10 pass attempts. Cunningham started 14 regular-season games for the 1998 Vikings, whose 556 points that year set the pace for a decade. He also finished first in Season DYAR, ahead of Vinny Testaverde, Steve Young, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

2. Trent Green, 2002 Kansas City Chiefs
Single-game DYAR: 327
Season DYAR: 1,231 (3)

Green is primarily remembered as the guy whose 1999 preseason knee injury led to Kurt Warner's ascent. It's shame, because his 2002 season with the Chiefs was the first of four in which he had season DYAR totals of at least 1,200 - in fact, 2002 was his lowest season total of the four. Green's single-game bonanza came in Week 4 against the Dolphins - he went 24 of 34 for 328 yards and five touchdowns. He also rushed three times for 48 yards, which added 20 DYAR to the game total (too bad we're not counting those yards in this example).

Green ranked third in season DYAR behind Rich Gannon and Chad Pennington in 2002, and in the top five every season through 2005. His is one of the more underrated quarterback careers of the last decade.

3. Tom Brady, 2007 New England Patriots
Single-game DYAR: 306
Season DYAR: 2,788 (1)

Ah, the quarterback season by which all others will be measured. Brady had three games in the all-time DYAR top 15 in 2007 alone, but the best was in week 10 against the Bills. Brady put up ridiculous numbers - 31 of 39 for 373 yards and five touchdowns; a trend that had gone on all season and was about to decline. The Patriots saw a fairly precipitous dip in offensive efficiency from week 12 through the Super Bowl, though that could be credited to nothing more than simple regression. No team, and no quarterback, could be expected to produce at the rate the Pats and Brady had to that point. Still, Brady finished 2007 with the top season DYAR of all time.

4. Marc Bulger, 2002 St. Louis Rams
Single-game DYAR: 306
Season DYAR: 611 (13)

Bulger was the one exception to out "great game/great season" group, but it had more to do with opportunity and than anything else. Bulger was a practice squad player for the Rams before replacing Jamie Martin five games into the 2002 season. The Rams were 0-5 at the time, but they won every game in which Bulger played a major part after he replaced Martin. Bulger's major DYAR moment was his fourth NFL game, when he completed 36 passes in 48 attempts for 453 yards and four touchdowns. He was hurt in week 15 against the Seahawks, and a potentially great season was clamped at both ends. Bulger had two seasons over 1,00 DYAR (2004 and 2006) before things fell apart along St. Louis' offense.

5. Scott Mitchell, 1995 Detroit Lions
Single-game DYAR: 305
Season DYAR: 1,606 (1)

Mitchell gained fame in 1993, when he played behind an injured Dan Marino in Miami and acquitted himself well enough to earn a three-year, $11 million contract with the Detroit Lions. After one year of struggle, Mitchell put it all together in 1995, setting team records for passing yards and touchdown passes, as well as a season DYAR you wouldn't ever expect to see out of Detroit. The single game came in Week 12 against the Vikings, when Mitchell went 30 of 45 for 410 yards and four touchdowns. He never reached those heights again, and he's now remembered (to whatever extend he's remembered) as the cautionary tale for teams looking to overspend on backups who hit it bit big in favorable systems.

Generally speaking, one hot DYAR game in a season does tell us something about the season that quarterback's going to have. Unless the season is truncated for the reasons that befell Marc Bulger, there are enough seasons populated by names like Brady, Manning, Palmer, and Aikman to take It seriously. The Clint Longley phenomenon (one great game, then goodbye) doesn't seem to apply.

When it comes to measuring quarterbacks, the old and confusing rating system has been the standard for a long time. San Diego's Philip Rivers led the NFL with a 105.5 quarterback rating in 2008, but what does that mean? It's an arbitrary number that only means something in the context of other, similar ratings. Does it mean that Rivers was 8.1 "rating points" better than Miami's Chad Pennington, who finished second at 97.4? We suppose so, but we don't really know, and it's hard to attach real value to a number without seeing the work, so to speak. Who did he throw to? Against what defenses? With how many or few defenders in the box? Was he helped or victimized by his teammates?

At Football Outsiders, we have several proprietary ways of gauging quarterback efficiency. There are our DVOA and DYAR stats, which measure players per play and over a full season. Perhaps the most important aspect of those two concepts is that they adjust for opponent - there's no statistical reward for beating up on the pass defenses of the Lions or Rams. Through our game-charting project, in which an army of volunteers and staffers track every play of every game, we also have our Quarterback Accuracy stat. This isolates what a quarterback does regardless of his receivers. Since we track all passes which are errantly (under- and over-) thrown, and not just dropped or missed by receivers, we get a better idea of which quarterbacks are really above the norm. Quarterback accuracy is the percentage of passes (minimum 200) which are not marked by our charters as Thrown Ahead, Thrown Behind, Overthrown,

The league average for Quarterback Accuracy was 82.6 percent in 2008, putting 17.3 percent of the average quarterback's incompletions on his own head. The most accurate quarterbacks in 2008 based on our system were New Orleans' Drew Brees (90.2 percent), Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (87.0), Brett Favre of the New York Jets (86.7), Arizona's Kurt Warner (86.5), and Tampa Bay's Jeff Garcia (86.0). Washington's Jason Campbell finished seventh at 85.7 percent, which means that we were only able to point the finger at the Redskins' beleaguered quarterback for 14.3 percent of his incompletions. Where's the extra 23.4 percent incompletion rate that makes up his 62.3 percent completion rate overall? Ask the receivers who dropped 39 of his passes, the highest from any quarterback in the NFL.

On the downside of this list, you'll find Oakland's JaMarcus Russell (73.5 percent - the worst among all quarterbacks with 200 or more passes), Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck (77.0), Detroit's Dan Orlovsky (77.8), Cleveland's Derek Anderson (77.8), and San Francisco's J.T. O'Sullivan. Hasselbeck is a bit of a surprise, until you remember that all his receivers were hurt last year and his offensive line was nonexistent. Another surprise is Atlanta's Matt Ryan at 79.0 percent, sixth-worst in the league (Baltimore's Joe Flacco, his rookie compatriots, finished at 81.5 percent).

Who were the primary culprits in each category? Anderson overthrew a full 9.0 percent of his passes, followed by Minnesota's Gus Frerotte (8.1), Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger (7.8), Hasselbeck (7.8), and San Francisco's Shaun Hill (7.5). Brees had the fewest overthrows (2.6 percent), followed by San Diego's Philip Rivers (3.0), Jake Delhomme of the Panthers (3.2 - this was obviously before he turned into the football equivalent of Chuck Knoblauch), Miami's Chad Pennington (3.2), and Denver's Jay Cutler (3.3).

We're not sure if it's the preponderance of deep routes that the Raiders prefer, but JaMarcus Russell's 16.5 percent Underthrown Rate is pretty ridiculous. Following behind him in the "Just Didn't Get There" brigade are Eli Manning of the Giants (13.1), Tyler Thigpen of the Chiefs (13.1), Derek Anderson (12.9 -- How versatile of him - he can under- and over-throw!), and Hasselbeck again as well. No quarterback underthrew fewer receivers than Houston's Matt Schaub (4.9 percent), followed by Jason Campbell (6.4 percent), Jeff Garcia (5.8), Kurt Warner (6.9), and Drew Brees (7.3).

Finally, since we've been exposing the foibles of so many quarterbacks, it's time to take a shot at their receivers. As we mentioned, nobody had more dropped passes than Campbell, followed by Aaron Rodgers (38), Drew Brees (38 - imagine how efficient he would have been with half that many?), Peyton Manning (36), and Ben Roethlisberger (35).

More and more, we're understanding specific efficiencies and play responsibilities through the combination of advanced stats and film study. Expanding numbers as they pertain (and, perhaps, do NOT pertain) to quarterbacks is one of the most important aspects of football sabermetrics. The QB Rating metric was a handy-dandy shortcut (to what, we're not sure), but it's time to put away the abacus and opt for the exploded view of the game.

During his first training camp with the New York Jets, former Ravens linebacker Bart Scott insisted to ESPN.com's Tim Graham that the one stat he never wanted to lead the NFL in was total tackles. "What you want to do is limit your reps," Scott said. "You want to lead the league in three-and-outs. You want to play the least amount of plays than anybody in the NFL. That should be your goal, to be No. 1. To have a lot of tackles? That means nothing. I could stand on the field all day and make tackles, but our team isn't going to be very good."

Scott's absolutely right, and we're on his side at Football Outsiders. To that end, we keep two specific stats that reveal the actual value of a tackle: Stops and Defeats. Stops are the total number of plays which prevent a "success" by the opposing offense, which we classify as 45 percent of conversion yardage on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Defeats are plays that stop the offense from gaining first down yardage on third or fourth down, stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a fumble or interception. As opposed to total tackle numbers, which are statistical empty calories in the sense that so many tackles come from the old real estate adage - location, location, location. Going back to 2001, an inside or middle linebacker has led the NFL each season in combined tackles (solo and assists). This makes sense because so many rushing plays right up the gut, right in their collective wheelhouse.

Obviously, having one NFL tackling leader says nothing about your team's defensive efficiency, which is what Scott was implying. So, let's break it down by position for 2008. Who were the most efficient and valuable tacklers last season? Based on percentage of Defeats (minimum 20 plays), here they are ... your Bart Scott All-Stars!

The Seahawks, possessors of a 4-12 record in 2008, should lead the NFL in Defeats from their front four - in addition to Terrill and Mebane, they traded for Redding in the offseason. Peppers, Allen, and Freeney aside, you won't see the defensive end list dominated by sack leaders - leaders in percentage of Defeats are just as likely to come from the other side of the line - the unheralded run-stoppers like Hayward or Brown. That's another aspect of the value in a list of Defeats - lesser-known names show up in unexpected places. Brown had 15 run Defeats in 2008, third for his position behind Trent Cole of the Eagles and Adewale Ogunleye of the Bears.

Porter's career year is reflected here as well. Notice that just about all of the linebackers on this list, with the notable exception of Briggs, are 3-4 linebackers who frequently line up outside the ends. Timmons is the only one who frequently plays inside. Other 4-3 'backers high on this list include Philly's Chris Gocong, Chicago's Brian Urlacher, and Thomas Davis of the Carolina Panthers. Very little surprise among the top safeties, and some names to know from there.

Oh, and Mr Scott himself? He racked up 17 Defeats in 87 plays (19.54%), not bad at all for an inside guy. Good to know he walks it like he talks it...

Rodgers-Cromartie had an outstanding rookie campaign, and Johnson solidified the Oakland secondary opposite Nnamdi Asomugha after the DeAngelo Hall mistake was realized (sorry, Redskins fans...) David was cut by New Orleans because his coverage skills were ill-suited for a man scheme. Winfield and Woodson are two stalwart veterans - Woodson even played safety in a pinch for the Packers last season.

Obviously, the further back in the defense you go, the lower the percentages become. And there's more to any position than Defeats or Stop Rate. But as we go further inside the game, and realize the actual value of things like tackles, the more is revealed. That's what the numbers are all about.