The League

For all the talking heads subscribing to the theory that the Indianapolis Colts will beat the New Orleans Saints by anywhere from a field goal to a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIV, this thing has the feel of a pick-'em from a sabermetric perspective. In Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics (explained here), these teams are about as even as it gets. The Colts ranked eighth in overall DVOA (17.1%), and the Saints were sixth (23.4%). In Weighted DVOA, which puts a greater weight on late-season performance, both teams reflected their late drop-offs, ranking 14th (9.8%) in Indy's case and 12th (13.5%) for New Orleans.

The Colts finished the 2009 regular season ranked sixth (19.6%) in Offensive DVOA, while the Saints (1.3%) ranked 14th in Defensive DVOA. Again, both teams faltered a bit down the stretch, with Indy falling to ninth in Weighted Offensive DVOA and the Saints plummeting to 23rd. Fortunately for New Orleans, their Achilles' heel on defense counters something the Colts don't do very often -- run the ball. The Saints finished the 2009 season ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run, and ninth against the pass. The Colts ranked sixth in Passing DVOA and 22nd in Rushing DVOA. Where New Orleans has a slightly underrated advantage is in their secondary -- according to our numbers, cornerback Jabari Greer was the NFL's second-best cornerback in the league in 2009, just behind Darrelle Revis. And unlike the Jets' secondary, the Saints don't have one great guy and three average ones -- safety Darren Sharper has a well-developed veteran sense for the ball, and fellow cornerback Tracy Porter is a fast, if sometimes vulnerable, defender. But there's no throwing away from Greer and hoping to find a patsy on the other side.

Switching to the other side of the ball brings another surprise -- for such a pass-heavy offense, the Saints are an extremely efficient running team. Not only did New Orleans finish first overall in Rushing DVOA (17.5%), but Pierre Thomas outpaced all backs in individual DVOA as well. Thomas also ranked third in Success Rate, an FO number which represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. The Saints' overall Offensive DVOA ranking of second in the NFL (27.6%) against Indy's 16th-ranked defensive DVOA? That's the first matchup which appears to pop off the page in one team's favor. The Colts ranked 14th ahainst the pass and 20th against the run.

In the red zone, both teams are explosive in scoring range and touch to score on defensively, though the Saints have the edge here, as well. The Colts ranked third in overall red zone offensive DVOA, but the Saints were first in red zone defense -- first against the pass, and 20th against the run. When he's facing the Saints, Peyton Manning may find it advantageous to audible out of pass calls to run plays, and never more so than when his team's on the verge of scoring.

Both teams get off to fast starts on offense -- the Saints rank first in first down DVOA, and the Colts rank seventh. The Saints are especially good running the ball on first and second down, while the Colts have a slight uptick in third down. Both teams are effective through the air on a down-to-down basis.

Both teams blitz more than they did on the past under defensive coordinators in their first years with their new teams -- the Colts barely blitzed at all until Larry Coyer came on board. They still blitz nowhere near as often as Gregg Williams does with the Saints, but the ability of linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett to hit the A-gaps and bring pressure could alleviate the most pressing injury issue of this game -- the possibility that elite edge rusher Dwight Freeney won't be able to play or will see only limited duty.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are probably the two best quarterbacks in football, and they get their work done in different ways. Though the Colts use a bit more formation diversity than they used to, they'll run three-wide, single-back more frequently than just about any other team. The Saints, on the other hand, will run any number of formations, and head coach Sean Payton is find of throwing near-endless route combinations at enemy defenses. The Saints do better against #1 receivers and tight ends, which is to their advantage -- watch out for Jabari Greer on Reggie Wayne, and the Saints' linebackers and safeties against Dallas Clark. The Colts are perhaps best at stopping screen passes, as the edge speed of their defense makes outside gains very tough to pick up. That's a problem for New Orleans, as Payton is a big believer in the screen to get Brees away from pressure.

These teams aren't as similar as some might have you believe, though their strengths and weaknesses tie up together in ways that should make for an appealing and close Super Bowl. I'll take the Saints by that same field goal most people believe the Colts will win by, but on paper, this Super Bowl is a very tight affair.

We've discussed it before, and it's worth bringing up again -- when it comes to evaluating defensive performance, standard stats are somewhat revealing, but not necessarily specifically informative. Middle or inside linebackers lead the NFL in tackles every year because ballcarriers flow to them, not because they're all over the place, making plays. Cornerbacks with high interception numbers could be doing that work against sub-average quarterbacks. One edge rusher with six sacks could be more valuable to his team than another edge rusher with twice the sacks, because the first guy is far better against the run.

Of course, the point of football is to win, not to accumulate positive individual numbers. And a big part of winning is making those plays when they really count more than the opponent does. Two of the principal philosophies we hold at Football Outsiders are that plays should be indicated as more valuable in specific conditions, and that plays should be given more value when they're made against a better team. That's where many of our stats come from -- the whole point of DVOA and DYAR is to adjust for opponent and give a performance rating against a baseline, so it's easier to tell what a team's really doing out there.

On defense, it's not just about tackles, it's also about where those tackles happen and what effect they have. We have two stats to reflect this:

Success Rate: The percentage of plays targeting a defensive player on which the offense did not have a successful play. This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but also short completions that do not meet the 45%/60%/100% baseline for success detailed in the description of DVOA.

Defeats: The total number of plays by a defensive player that prevent the offense from gaining first down yardage on third or fourth down, stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a turnover. "Plays" refers to tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions.

In short, Success Rate reflects gradations of defensive effectiveness, and Defeats indicate the ability to bring offensive drives to a quick close. Who had the best Success Rate and most Defeats at any defensive position in 2009?

Most Successes, Overall Defense

Justin Tuck, New York Giants, 55
Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles, 51
Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills, 50
Marques Douglas, New York Jets, 50
Andre Carter, Washington Redskins, 50

Most Defeats, Overall Defense

Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills, 30
Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings, 27
Andre Carter, Washington Redskins, 26
Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings, 25
Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles, 23

Stats heavy in edge rushers, with the addition of Minnesota's dominant ends when we're talking about defeats. How about linebackers -- the guys who always lead the league in tackles? Who has the best Stop Rate, defined as plays by a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down?

Best Stop Rate, Linebackers

Anthony Spencer, Dallas Cowboys, 68 percent
Lawrence Timmons, Pittsburgh Steelers, 66 percent
Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears, 66 percent
Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks, 65 percent
Nick Barnett, Green Bay Packers, 64 percent

Which safeties had the most defeats? An interesting mix of old and new.

Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals, 24
Louis Delmas, Detroit Lions, 21
Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints 20
Gibril Wilson, Miami Dolphins, 19
Brodney Pool, Cleveland Browns, 19

And finally, the same stat for cornerbacks:

Charles Woodson, Green Bay Packers, 29
Terrell Thomas, New York Giants, 24
Darrelle Revis, New York Jets, 22
Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 22
Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs, 21

We'll get more in depth with these numbers and what they mean during the offseason, but this is a good starting point when it comes to these numbers. Next week, we'll be using some of them in the Smarter Stats Super Bowl Preview.

Generally speaking, the "diversity" buzzword only gets a good airing in the NFL when teams are looking to follow the letter (if not always the spirit) of the Rooney Rule. But all four of the teams that have made to the Championship round of the playoffs have diversity to thank for their good fortune.

In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints bring formation diversity to their passing offenses to great effect. The two teams do it differently -- the Vikings will eye a defensive formation and make pre-snap adjustments. A two-back set might become an empty backfield, with running backs split wide or tight ends in motion to catch a safety or linebacker off guard. The Saints, on the other hand, love to run routes that tie opposing secondaries in knots. There may be less pre-snap action, but head coach Sean Payton is the best in the game at rolling receivers away from coverages. Quarterback Drew Brees always has a man open, which is one reason he completed over 70 percent of his passes this season.

Of course, Brees doesn't do much when he's eating turf, which is what Minnesota's dominant front four will try to have him do a good five or 10 times this Sunday. Last weekend against the Cowboys, Minnesota harassed Tony Romo straight into oblivion. Brees Is better at avoiding pressure, but this is a different level of challenge. On the other side of the ball, keep this name in mind: Jabari Greer. Doesn't sound as cool as "Darrelle Revis", but only Revis was a better cover corner than Bushrod according to our numbers. New Orleans is getting its defensive backfield together again after several injuries, and they spear ready to harass Brett Favre after giving Kurt Warner the business. Where the Saints can't seem to adjust is in run defense up the middle -- with or without super-tackle Sedrick Ellis (who's really more of a pass-rusher than a run-plugger), they're more vulnerable than any team facing Adrian Peterson should be.

Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan have one thing in common -- a great desire to send multiple defenders in complicated blitz alignments from many different fronts. Ryan is particularly good at disguising blitzes to prevent opposing quarterbacks from deciphering his intentions. Ryan won't just send two guys up the middle -- he'll also send a cornerback or safety as a third pressure option in ways that no offensive formation can pick up. To counter this, the Indianapolis Colts have an interesting strategy -- very little formation diversity at all. No team runs more three-wide single-back sets than the Colts; everything in that offense runs off what Peyton Manning sees at the line of scrimmage. And of these formation battles, Manning vs. Ryan may be the most interesting of all.

However ... one thing the Colts will do more than in previous years is blitz, and this is well worth watching. Before the Colts pulled their started in the Week 16 "loss" to the Jets, Indy sent two different six-man pass rushes with two linebackers headed up either side of the center against New York's five-wide sets, and defensive end Dwight Freeney came through unblocked for sacks on Mark Sanchez each time. Based on the 2009 regular season data we've collected so far at Football Outsiders, the Colts rushed three just 3 percent of the time (down from 5.3 percent in 2008), rushed four 71 percent (down from a league-leading 84.8 percent in 2008), rushed five 20 percent (way up from a league-low 7.8 percent in 2008) and brought six or more 4 percent of the time -- twice as often as their league-low total of 2.1 percent last season. They're nowhere near as blitz-happy as the Jets, but they will bring it.

Of course, when the Jets play pass defense against Manning's multiple targets andtry to disguise it as a stacked line, Manning will decipher it and send his backs up the middle in two-tight-end sets (another new wrinkle the Colts didn't used to feature), or bouncing outside for effective runs. The Jets will have to react more proactively to these atypical Colts and their fearless leader.

Last week, we looked at overall DVOA versus Weighted DVOA in order to get a better idea which teams were coming into the wild-card round with more momentum. From the divisional round on, we look at Weighted DVOA entirely, because the late-season adjustments match the "What have you done for me lately?" feel of the playoffs.

Based on Weighted DVOA, the best teams in each conference right now are the Baltimore Ravens (39.6% WDOA) and the Dallas Cowboys (37.6%). Makes sense, really -- both teams ended the regular season on hot streaks and won decisively in their wild-card games. The San Diego Chargers (28.5%) and the just-eliminated Green Bay Packers are next in line, with the Carolina Panthers (23.7%) and the Indianapolis Colts placing fifth and sixth. Carolina's late-season run makes one wonder what this team would have done had they yanked Jake Delhomme a bit earlier in the season.

The Colts' need to rest their starters after they clinched home field advantage through the playoffs got us thinking -- if DVOA is supposed to be adjusted for situation and opponent as a more accurate performance metric, shouldn't we take out all the "garbage time" snaps with Peyton Manning, et al, on the bench and just dealt with the Colts as they would be all season if they had something to play for in games 16 and 17? They rank sixth with that adjustment made, and 14th if we add the Curtis Painter Experience back in.

Of the remaining playoff teams, the Jets and Cardinals rank seventh and eighth, while the Saints and Vikings bring up the rear at 12th and 14th. Pretty low marks for two teams considered to be the class of the NFC not too long ago, but that's the whole point -- the playoffs are about momentum, right now, and not about how you got here.

That's where we get to the matchups, and some specific stats to watch in each game.

Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric is a good way to rate teams based on situation and opponent, but there's another crucial factor as the postseason drive begins -- momentum. That's why we came up with Weighted DVOA, which de-emphasizes early-season results in favor of numbers that tell us which teams are hot at the right time, and which teams need to check their barometers.

This year, the biggest upswing in Weighted DVOA belongs to a team that can't use it in the postseason -- the 8-8 Carolina Panthers, who won their final three games by a combined score of 90-26. That wasn't enough to turn around their dismal early season, but their WDVOA of 28.9% was so far above their regular DVOA of 10.2%, it's easy to understand why ownership wants coach John Fox to go for another year. Among playoff teams, the San Diego Chargers (WDVOA improvement of 9.4%) and the Green Bay Packers (7.2% improvement) are the best. In fact, the Packers rank first in WDVOA at 37.5%, and they may be the team nobody wants to face right now. The Cowboys, Cardinals, and Jets also have positive upswings per our numbers.

On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts -- the NFL's two one-seeds -- need to fix a few things. The Saints have dropped from fifth in overall DVOA (23.4%) to 12th in Weighted (13.5%). The Colts went from seventh overall (17.1%) to 14th weighted 9.8%). Could we be looking at another postseason in which a member of the Wild Card crew steps up and surprises us all, as the 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, and 2008 Cardinals did? The more we're able to put a number on late-season runs, the more we're able to note that the question once again bears asking.

Here's a quick look at this weekend's wild-card entrants, what their numbers say, and where they're strongest and weakest.

Saturday: New York Jets at Cincinnati, Philadelphia at Dallas
Sunday: Baltimore at New England, Green Bay at Arizona

Cincinnati Bengals (Regular: 0.4%/Weighted: -4.0%/Diff: -4.4%)

Just last Sunday, the Jets put a 37-0 mortal beatdown on the Bengals by rushing for a total of 257 yards, including 92 yards on four carries by option quarterback Brad Smith, who confounded Cincinnati's defense with different keepers and handoffs from different formations. It's a bad time for the Bengals to face the New York run game, which finished the season ranked 11th in rushing DVOA -- Cincy's run defense dropped from 13th to 26th in DVOA in the season's second half.

New York Jets (Regular: 16.3%/Weighted: 19.6%/Diff: +3.3%)

It's not just that the Jets have the best defensive player in the NFL in cornerback Darrelle Revis -- the level of dominance Revis has established this season is truly unbelievable. According to Football Outsiders' numbers, the average pass defense gave up 8.07 yards per target to receivers marked as "#1" -- the elite receivers in the game. Your Randy Mosses and such. The Jets rank first in defensive pass DVOA against those same types of receivers (Revis' responsibility is always to lock down the other team's top guy), and Revis has allowed 4.08 yards per target. That, my friends, is historical stuff. The Bengals don't have many pass-catching options after Chad Ochocinco, which is bad news for the team's middling passing game. Against Revis last week, Ocho was targeted four times and didn't catch a single pass. Don't expect anything different in the sequel.

Baltimore Ravens (Total: 32.5%/Weighted: 31.4%/Diff: -1.1%)

The Ravens are a very powerful offensive team, and it's led by their blocking. Only Baltimore and New Orleans rank in the top ten of every run-blocking category tracked by Football Outsiders -- Adjusted Line Yards, short-area run conversion, and breaking long gains. This team can do it all. Conversely, the Patriots rank 25th in Defensive Line Yards, and they're vulnerable against short and long runs.

New England Patriots (Total: 28.3%/Weighted: 27.6%/Diff: -0.7%)

The Patriots have the best Home DVOA in the NFL, while the Ravens are 12th-best on the road. As detailed above, Baltimore will always want to turn games into old-school slobberknockers. The Pats, on the other hand, want to keep the ball in the air. Tom Brady ranks #1 in our Quarterback DYAR rankings, and the loss of Wes Welker to a season-ending knee injury is less a disaster than some might have you believe. Against the Houston Texans in the season finale, Welker backup Julian Edelman caught 10 passes for 103 yards. He's a great short-passing option against a Ravens defense that ranked lower defensively in second- and third-and-short situations than they did in overall defense.

Arizona Cardinals (Total: 10.5%/Weighted: 13.9%/Diff: +3.4%)

Last year, the Cards made it to the Super Bowl with a horrific late-season slump, and a successful run that rewarded them with the title: "Worst Team Ever to Make The Super Bowl". This year, they enter the playoffs looking a bit better. Arizona's run defense has been strong all year long, finishing the season ranked 10th in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards. However, no defense gives up a higher percentage of rushing yards 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage, and the pass defense DVOA has fallen from 19th in the first half of the season to 30th in the second half. You'd think the Cards would catch a break with the Packers coming to their house, but their total DVOA -- both offensive and defensive -- is actually better on the road.

Green Bay Packers (Total: 30.3%/Weighted: 37.5%/Diff: +7.2%)

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009 Postseason Momentum Champions. Perhaps the primary reason for Green Bay's late-season improvement is the sudden and impressive ability to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- the Packers' line game up 37 sacks in their first eight games, and only 13 in the final eight. Green Bay's Passing DVOA went from 27.6% in the season's first half to 40.9% in the second half -- from 11th to sixth in the league. But the real surprise is the rushing attack, which has gone from 11th at the turn to first overall at the end. On defense, only Philly's Asante Samuel has a higher Stop Rate against the pass than Green Bay cornerback Charles Woodson. Stop rate is defined as the prevention percentage of successful plays defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. This is a team nobody wants to face right now.

Philadelphia Eagles (Total: 28.6%/Weighted: 20.6%/Diff: -8.0%)
Dallas Cowboys (Total: 26.0%/Weighted: 31.2%/Diff: +5.2%)

Well, it didn't used to be this way -- the Eagles are supposed to be strong at the turn, and the Cowboys are supposed to fall apart, right? Perhaps the primary issue in Dallas' 24-0 win over the Eagles last week was the consistency of the Cowboys' rushing attack -- Marion Barber and Felix Jones both gained 91 yards; Jones on 15 carries and Barber on 14. Philly's defense has fallen off against the run and the pass in recent weeks -- from first to 12th in DVOA against the pass, and from 12th to 18th against the pass. The Eagles must find away to deal with a Dallas offensive line ranked third in Adjusted Line Yards at season's end. They should also get the ball to underrated tight end Brent Celek as often as possible, as Dallas ranks 27th in defensive passing DVOA against tight ends.

Before Mike Tomlin won a Super Bowl as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was a respected assistant coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings. Dominant defenses were the order of the day wherever Tomlin went, and it was a natural fit for the Steelers to hire Tomlin in 2007 and continue their long history of hiring young, defensive minded coaches like Bill Cowher and Chuck Noll. Leslie Frazier, Tomlin's replacement as Minnesota's defensive coordinator, is gaining ground when potential head coaching candidates are named -- it is, after all, nearing the coach-firing season.

Key in the process of coach replacement is adherence to the Rooney Rule, which prevents any NFL team from hiring a coach or general manager without first interviewing a minority candidate. Tomlin and Tampa Bay's Raheem Morris are two coaches who have benefited from the implementation of this rule, and Frazier might be next. The Vikings have never placed lower than fourth in run defense efficiency during Frazier's time in Minnesota, and he's already interviewed for head coaching positions. And while any coach would have a headstart with the Williams Wall and Jared Allen on his front line, Frazier has also been key in the development of new stars such as E.J. Henderson, Chad Greenway, and Ray Edwards. In addition, Frazier's creative uses of different blitz and zone blitz packages make enemy quarterbacks as confused by scheme as they are beaten down by sackmaster Allen.

Washington secondary coach Jerry Gray is another rising star in the coaching ranks -- while his recent interview with the Redskins as they move to replace Jim Zorn is seen as a perfunctory move, remember that many thought the same thing of Tomlin's interview in Pittsburgh until he knocked it out of the park. Gray has presided over several excellent defensive units in Buffalo and Washington, and it may be time for him to get a shot as heads roll across the NFL.

Even if Washington's interview was a sham, as intimated by the Post's John Feinstein, Gray's name could get out there for this just as much or more than for the coaching he's done. And when people do get a look at his credentials, Gray might be in demand. In 2001, his first year as Buffalo's defensive coordinator, the Bills ranked 25th in Defensive DVOA. By 2004, Gray's fourth year in charge, they ranked first overall. That's important to note, and it goes under the radar. Buffalo isn't a teeming media market, and the job Gray has done with Washington's secondary gets lost in constant team turmoil and the understandable media preference for the ever-quotable Greg Blache.

Current Baltimore Ravens quarterbacks coach and former Atlanta/Washington offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is another frequently-mentioned assistant with future head coaching potential. Working effectively with mental giants like Steve Spurrier and Bobby Petrino would seemingly up Jackson's cache, but the main point on his resume is the development of Joe Flacco, the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start and help his team win two playoff games. Jackson also presided over Cincinnati's wide receivers from 2004 through 2006, when the team's passing productivity was the highest it had been since the halcyon 1970s days of Paul Brown and Bill Walsh. The Bengals' Passing DVOA of 38.2% in 2005 and 39.5% in 2006 are the team's best through the "DVOA era", which goes back as far as our stats do (15 years at this time).

Frazier, Gray, and Jackson are but three of the new generation of African-American coaching talent, and the stats back up their stories. As NFL teams continue to employ sabermetric research to inform their coaching and personnel decisions, it will be more and more difficult to exclude people due to the color of their skin. When stats back up the Rooney Rule, the league comes that much closer to the dream of true equality.

Last week, we looked at the best, and most worrisome, aspects of each NFC playoff hopeful through the eyes of sabermetrics. When analyzing the possibilities in the AFC, one must begin with the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning's team hasn't won an easy game since their Week 7 domination of the Rams, and the only consistent aspect of their game over the last month has been their passing game, as reflected by Football Outsiders' efficiency metrics. It's a pretty good argument for Manning as the NFL MVP. The New England Patriots, Indy's old nemesis, hasn't seen the kind of overall efficiency that leads to great seasons in about two years. Their passing game is back on track with Tom Brady and their run game is underrated as it was last season, but the defense will keep Bill Belichick lower in the playoff seeds than he's used to. Their pass defense ranks 21st in FO's opponent-adjusted stats, and only the Cardinals and Falcons are worse against #1 receivers.

Right now, the Chargers are the proverbial team nobody wants to face, including the Colts -- Manning struggles against the kinds of pressure-heavy 3-4 defenses seen in San Diego. They've run off nine wins in a row, but like the Colts, their passing is their only consistently excellent export. Their defense is below average, and the streak has seen wins over several tomato cans -- the Raiders, Browns, and Chiefs (twice). Sometimes, hot streaks are about the division in which you reside -- San Diego's last loss was to the Denver Broncos, and they turned around and beat the Broncos during Denver's recent implosion. The Cincinnati Bengals, who the Chargers beat in a close contest, have more impressive division sweeps over the Ravens and Steelers. The anti-stat lobby will tell you that wins and losses are the only numbers that matter, but the ways in which wins and losses are amassed can tell us a lot about what may happen next. The best teams may be more vulnerable than we think.

Things get interesting on the precipice. Pass defense is a lead story for many teams. Miami and the New York Jets are on life support in the East with matching 7-7 records, but Miami could be demolished by Houston receiver Andre Johnson this Sunday. Johnson is the 13th-ranked NFL receiver according to our DYAR metric, and the 'Fins are 20th in the league against #1 receivers. The Jets will have to beat the Colts to keep their hopes alive; a scenario that will either leave them seemingly outmatched in just about every area (the Colts start their stars on the road to 16-0) or in an inconclusive matchup (the Colts rest their stars and we're trying to project how Curtis Painter will play quarterback). Either way, there's one thing we can say with certainty -- Reggie Wayne will not be a factor. He'll be going up against Jets cornerback Darrelle "The Human Eraser" Revis, who's the primary reason for New York's excellent numbers against all kinds of receivers -- third in Defensive DVOA against #1 receivers, fourth against #2 and #3 receivers, fifth against tight ends, and third against running backs. Putting that defense against Peyton Manning should make for a series of very interesting matchups.

The loser of Sunday's Baltimore-Pittsburgh head-knocker is out of the picture for good, and the Steelers would need quite a bit of help even if they win at home. The Ravens won the first game this season, 20-17 in overtime at home, but circumstances will be different this time around. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger didn't play on that game -- he was replaced by Dennis Dixon, an option quarterback from Oregon starting his first game. Dixon was intercepted in overtime by Baltimore defender Paul Kruger -- fooled on a zone blitz. Roethlisberger reads blitzes quite a bit better, but he will still have trouble against a Baltimore defense that covers secondary receivers at a top ten clip. The Steelers are in the unusual position of being unable to counter with a great pass defense of their own. The loss of safety Troy Polamalu, who has played in only five games this season and is not expected to play against the Ravens, has left the Steelers secondary headless. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in the games in which Polamalu has played, and 3-6 without him. Football is the ultimate team sport, but some players are indispensable.

With three weeks left in the 2009 regular season, and about half the teams in the league still realistically in the playoff race, franchise assets and liabilities become more important now than before. Hammers of the Gods -- those things that take a team over the top. Achilles' Heels, those traps that keep Super Bowls at bay. Three NFC East teams still harbor postseason hopes, and each one has defining characteristics both good and bad.

The Philadelphia Eagles sit in the catbird seat after beating the New York Giants last Sunday. They're best-known as an explosive downfield offensive team with the constant speed threat of receiver DeSean Jackson, but it's the pass defense that has kept them in the hunt. According to Football Outsiders' efficiency metrics, few teams are better at shutting down #1 receivers; the Eagles allow 5.3 yards per pass to the best receivers they face. Substitution packages and tight ends don't fare too well, either. On the down side, Philly's famed red-zone issues remain -- they're far less efficient from the opposing 40-yard line in than they are on their own side of midfield.

The Dallas Cowboys have defensive problems, especially against the pass. Our metrics, which are adjusted for situation and opponent, tell us that the Cowboys have the 30th-ranked defense against third and fourth receivers as well as tight ends, and no team is worse in defending screen passes to running backs. On the other hand, few teams are more efficient when running the ball, and the Cowboys manage to excel in just about every down and distance situation on the ground.

Meanwhile, the Giants are having trouble in places they didn't used to -- they rank 22nd in successful running plays on third- and fourth-and short, a reflection of their tentative ground game. Their red zone defense is also low in FO's metrics. These factors could see their postseason exit sooner than later.

In the NFC North, the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings brag the best kick return unit in the NFL -- our stats have them at 17.9 points above league average. Surprisingly for a team possessing the running back tandem of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota ranks 27th in Power Success, our metric which measures efficiency on those short-yardage situations the Giants also struggle with. The Green Bay Packers have the second-best overall defense per DVOA, but their primary liability is obvious -- their offensive line ranks dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate, our stat which measures sacks per pass attempt per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent.

The 13-0 Saints are the only real playoff contender in the NFC South. As much as their passing game gives them the NFL's best Offensive DVOA ranking, New Orleans has put up its three worst Defensive DVOA games in the last five weeks in close wins over the Rams, Redskins, and Falcons. They may finish out the season undefeated, but there's increasing concern about the team's postseason chances.

The NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals laid a major egg last Monday night against the division rival San Francisco 49ers, and the stats bear it out. Arizona put up a horrible Offensive DVOA of -59.6%, while the San Francisco defense scored a Defensive DVOA of -81.2% in their 24-9 win. Defensive DVOA is better when it's negative, and that's what happens when you force seven turnovers. The 6-7 Niners have the season sweep over the Cards, and a better division record. It's not out of the realm of possibility for them to stage a furious comeback down the stretch and steal the postseason from the defensive conference champions.

Next week, we'll take a closer look at the AFC stats and scenarios as the playoff picture becomes more clear.

With 1,509 rushing yards on 244 carries through 12 games, Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson is on the verge of some interesting benchmarks. Johnson Is averaging 125.8 yards per game, and he needs to average 122.8 yards per game in his last four games to become the sixth player in NFL history to go over 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. If he wants to break Eric Dickerson's 1984 record of 2,105 yards, he'll have to ramp that per-game total up to 149.3.

As with any player looking to tread sacred statistical ground, Johnson will be reliant on the defenses he faces as much as his own otherworldly talent. Using Football Outsiders' efficiency metrics, we can get a sense of just how feasible Johnson's trek to history really is. Johnson's biggest advantage on the road to 2,000 is his big play ability -- he leads the league with 19 running plays of 20 yards or more -- Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is second with 11.

At Football Outsiders, we keep track of the percentage of rushing yardage defenses give up that is 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Johnson starts the final quarter of his season against the St. Louis Rams, who rank 23rd in the NFL with 21 percent of their yardage allowed after 10 yards. Then, the Miami Dolphins come to town, and their defense only allows nine percent more than 10 yards downfield -- that's good for second in the NFL. The San Diego Chargers are next on the list, and they're third with 11 percent of their yardage downfield. The Titans finish their season with a trip to Seattle to face a Seahawks defense that gives up a full 25 percent of total rushing yardage beyond that 10-yard barrier.

Defensive Adjusted Line Yards, which assign responsibility for each rushing yard gained based on yardage, down, distance, and opponent. Negative plays or shorter gains are credited more to the line than 10-plus yard runs, based on the theory that downfield tackles are more often made by linebacker and defensive backs. So, ALY indicates how string a defense is at the line of scrimmage and close beyond. Of the remaining teams Johnson will face, the Seahawks are the best, ranking 11th with 3.86 line yards allowed per carry. Then, the Dolphins at 21st with 4.20 Line Yards, the Rams at 27th with 4.44 Line Yards, and the Chargers, who rank last in the NFL with 4.76 Line Yards. As strong as the Chargers are with downfield tackles, they basically have to be, because they allow an average of almost half a first down every time the opposing running back takes the ball. The Rams are weak at the line and downfield -- they may have the defense against which Johnson can make the most hay.

Where is it best to run the ball being Tennessee's offensive line? Offenses have Adjusted Line Yards, too, and we take play-by-play data to determine the frequency and effectiveness of runs to each of five directions: Left End, Left Tackle, Mid/Guard, Right Tackle, and Right End. Based on the ALY formula, Tennessee's offensive line is 20th in Adjusted Line Yards at 4.00 per carry, but first over all in percentage of rushing yardage after that 10-yard barrier. Because of Johnson's amazing game-breaking abilities, a full 38 percent of the Titans' rushing yards come more than 10 yards downfield. The Titans have taken 44 percent of their carries up the middle this year, which tells us that Johnson can break stuff from inside as well -- he doesn't need to take a pitch outside before making things happen. But when Johnson gets out to right end, the Titans rank second in the league at 5.22 yards per carry. He likes to bounce plays outside, as well.

There are other aspects to Johnson's chances that don't show up in our stats so readily, such as the number of times the Titans will run option plays in their last four games. When quarterback Vince Young rolls out right, forcing the defensive end tracking him down to cut inside and tackle Young, he can then pitch outside to Johnson, leaving wide open spaces downfield. Those option read decisions made by Young could be the difference in putting Johnson over the top. All four teams the Titans face are vulnerable to runs around right end -- the Seahawks allow 4.34 yards per carry, the Dolphins give up 3.78, the Rams surrender 3.78, and the Chargers allow a full 5.45 yards per carry around right end. That's where the option breakthroughs could be made.

If Chris Johnson wants to join the 2,000-plus group, he'll have to do it the same way the other members did -- with a devastating mixture of distance, speed, and situational effectiveness -- not to mention the ability to scout opponents and know where their strengths and weaknesses lie.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have won five of the last eight Super Bowls with versatile, multifaceted 3-4 defenses. The NFL is a copycat league, and other teams have adopted the 3-4, whether they have the personnel for it or not. From 1996 through 2008, 14 teams made the switch, and 10 of those teams did so from 2001 through 2008. Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) play-by-play efficiency metric, which rates players and teams by percentages over and under the baseline of every play in a season, tells us that those changes aren't always for the best. Of the 14 teams in question, five saw a decrease in defensive efficiency in their first 3-4 year, and three others saw less than one percentage point of positive change.

That's what makes the efforts of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, and Green Bay Packers so remarkable. Led respectively by new defensive coordinators Gregg Williams, Mike Nolan, and Dom Capers, these three teams have enjoyed the greatest defensive turnarounds since 1994, the first year of our proprietary stats. Keep in mind that since DVOA is based on scoring and preventing scoring, Defensive DVOA is better when it's negative.

Through the first three-quarters of the 2009 season, these three teams rank in the top five of all defensive turnarounds since 1996, and Denver's is the best overall.

That each team changed its defensive coordinator in the offseason speaks to the importance of scheme meeting personnel. Denver's Mike Nolan learned a lot from a prior 3-4 switch that didn't go as well when he was the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers -- in 2007, the Niners went to a full 3-4 after a couple years in a hybrid set (in a hybrid 3-4, the fourth linebacker will come up and play as a down lineman at times), and the difference was negligible; a -0.6% improvement. Dom Capers is known as one of the most astute 3-4 defensive minds in the business, so when the Packers brought him in to run their defense and added rookies B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews, Jr. to the roster, the fit was right. The Saints run more of a hybrid look from a 3-4 base, but defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will throw anything at an enemy offense -- zone blitzes, 4-4 linebacker/safety combos, and dime blitzes with six defensive backs on the field. With only three linemen on the field, that's one more defender to move around and create confusion. This is a hallmark of Dick LeBeau's defenses in Pittsburgh and Rex Ryan's in New York and Baltimore.

Teams can't just wave a magic wand, change a lineman into a linebacker, and see positive results. We can see five examples of this below -- the worst 3-4 switches since 1996. Note that two of these teams, the Patriots and Ravens, eventually fielded elite defenses after they guy the right guys to work the game plan.

Linebacker Jonathan Vilma played on the 2006 Jets' 3-4, in which new head coach Eric Mangini tried to retrofit what he learned as New England's secondary coach onto a defense built to run Cover-2. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year currently plays on the Saints, and he's the pointman on a defense that has matched New Orleans' combustible offense, leading the team to an 11-0 start.

If the Broncos, Saints, and Packers find their performances sustainable through the end of the season, they'll enjoy the defensive breakthroughs other franchises didn't see with the switch. Why? Because as with every NFL success story, scheme and personnel were built to work in harmony.

Earlier this week, we had a Panel Q & A about the NFL's worst division, and I thought it was time to pull together the early (Week 11) numbers for Divisional DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, Football Outsiders' primary efficiency statistic) as an enhanced reflection of excellence or futility over combined won-loss records. DVOA takes it a step beyond because it's adjusted for situation and opponent, and it's marked as percentages of production above or below the league average. The original question was whether the NFC East was the NFL's worst division, which is surprising when you see that according to DVOA, it's the league's best.

NFC East: 52.2%

The fourth-ranked Eagles (30.4%) hang at the top of the NFC East with admirable balance -- their inconsistent offense ranks 12th, but their defense is second and their special teams ranks fourth. Look for the offense to round into shape pretty soon and the annual Eagles late-season charge to begin. The Cowboys are in the hunt at 18.8%, though it seems that, as it is with every year, everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's already dropped with the Giants (12.4% before their Thanksgiving nightmare against the Broncos), and the Redskins have the division's only negative DVOA at -9.4%. So, they've got that going for them...

AFC South: 30.9%

The 35.9% Colts follow only the Patriots in overall DVOA, and it isn't just Peyton Manning. They have the fifth-best DVOA defense based in part on the play of their rookie cornerbacks. If they can shore up their special teams, the Colts might be unbeatable. The Houston Texans (9.3%) have the same issues that they had last year -- overall defense and red-zone offense -- but Matt Schaub's season is keeping them above the fray. At -1.50, the Jacksonville Jaguars are as average as their numbers indicate, though they have a decent shot at a playoff berth, and the -12.8% Tennessee Titans are the up-and-down kids, starting with six straight losses and rolling off four straight wins since.

AFC East: 28.9%

It's the 39.7% Patriots and everyone else here -- sound familiar? Tom Brady's return has sparked the offense, but remember that the Pats had the best Offensive DVOA in the second half of the 2008 season with Matt Cassel under center; the difference this year is the defense. The 11.7% Dolphins are trying to separate themselves from the pack, but they'll have to figure out how to run their offense without Ronnie Brown. The Jets (-1.6%) have flamed out after a 3-0 start (though they still have amazing cornerback Darrelle Revis), and the Bills, at -20.90%, are bad enough to get their head coach fired -- which has already happened.

AFC North: 10.3%

Here's where it gets close. The division-leading Bengals (8.0%) are actually behind the Ravens (25.4%) and Steelers (18.5%), a reflection of Cincinnati's bad special teams and average ranks on offense and defense -- this is a team that won the games they needed to. On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns rank 31st at -41.6%, which drags the whole division down, but there's a price to be paid for those easy division wins...

NFC South: -4.5%

Here's where we have standouts at both ends, and a bunch of "meh" in the middle. The 4.2% Falcons and -7.4% Panthers are struggling with injuries and capsizing schemes, but that's nothing compared to the fate of the woeful Buccaneers who rank 28th at -33.8%. On top, we have the very dangerous New Orleans Saints, ranked third overall at 32.5%, with their combustible offense and surprising Gregg Williams-led defense.

NFC North: -17.1%

The Pack may be back after their Turkey Day win over the Lions, but they're just catching up to their DVOA numbers. At ninth overall with a DVOA of 24.7%, Green Bay is a decent offensive line away from possible playoff glory. The Vikings aren't just about Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson -- they also have our top-ranked special teams unit. At -17.1%, the Bears are paying for several poor defensive drafts and Jay Cutler's inaccuracy, and the poor Lions are one of the all-time worst teams of the DVOA era, at -52.3%. Remember that the next time Matt Millen pretends to be an "expert" on one of his many broadcasts.

NFC West: -37.8%

For years, the story of the NFC West has been the team on top, and the three schlubs that follow. The St. Louis Rams, then the Seattle Seahawks, and now the Arizona Cardinals, benefit from low-grade divisional opponents on a consistent basis. Right now, the Cards rank 10th at 20.6%, and they're the only team in the division with a positive percentage. The 49ers stick and stay at -2.0% as they try to figure out what kind of offense they want to run, and former bullies Seattle (-17.9%) and St. Louis (-38.5%) have been thoroughly dethroned.

AFC West: -48.4%

The NFL's worst division based on DVOA gets its "magic" primarily from the Chiefs and Raiders. Kansas City's surprise win over the Steelers last Sunday didn't do much for their overall percentage (26.7%), and it would take a lot more than upsetting the Bengals to back the Raiders out of the division-low status at 38.4%. The Chargers (9.9%) and Broncos (6.8%) are battling for the top spot with DVOA that reflects equal parts potential and frustration.