The League

Why Scouts Need Stats

"We don't worry about numbers here. Statistics are for losers." -- Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Blache. (D.C. Sports Bog)

"You've got some real good stats there. You know he's 3-0 as a starter; how about that?" -- Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden, when asked about quarterback Brian Griese's low ranking in several statistical categories. (ESPN.com)

One of the most interesting storylines in "Moneyball", the Michael Lewis book that facilitated a statistical revolution in sports, was the ongoing war between the scouts and the stats guys -- the old school and the new school. That fight has calmed down in the baseball world with the success of Theo Epstein's Red Sox in recent years. Most MLB teams have a stat guy on staff, and some even listen to him. Football's a different story. While some teams have welcomed statistical analysis into their front offices, the opinions represented by Blache and Gruden are just as common. For those coaches, and with all due respect for their accomplishments, I'd like to offer the following three reasons why the new generation of football stats can be more helpful than they might expect.

1. Opponent adjustments are included.

This may be the most important part of the equation. Last Sunday, Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner threw 41 passes and competed 33 for 250 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton completed 23 passes in 34 attempts for 304 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Warner had the higher completion percentage (80.5 to 67.6), Orton the higher yards per attempt (8.94 to 6.10). Both quarterbacks' teams won their games convincingly -- the Cardinals 41-17 over the Bills, the Bears 34-7 over the Lions.

Who had the "better" day?

According to Football Outsiders' DYAR stat (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), Warner had the better day by far. Warner's total DYAR was 186 to Orton's 109. Why? Because the Bills have the better pass defense. Through four weeks, Buffalo's pass defense ranks sixth in DVOA, while Detroit's ranks dead last. Think of opponent-adjusted stats as the answer to a question, or the response to a statement.

Statement: "Kyle Orton had a wonderful game..."
Response: "...against the NFL's worst pass defense."

Teams pore over film to get a sense of which performances are real and which are mirages, but stats that take opponent strength into account make it easier for everyone to understand which is which.

2. Players are rewarded and penalized based on success and productivity.

To use another example, let's say that Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook each ran 10 times for 50 yards and one touchdown in last Sunday's Redskins-Eagles game. They both had the same day, right? Well, that depends -- Portis could have had 10 different five-yard runs, seven of which gained first downs, while Westbrook could have had one 40-yard run and nine spinouts at the line of scrimmage, seven of which caused the Eagles to punt. If Portis extends drives and Westbrook kills them, DVOA and DYAR are going to account for that.

Again, teams with huge film libraries and expert coaches are generally going to know which players work best for them, but having the numbers based on drive success (the key to consistent scoring) available certainly can't hurt.

3. There are now specific numbers for positional units.

What numbers have there been for offensive lines? You can get a sense of how good a line is if the back running behind them is great ... unless that back is Barry Sanders, who probably depended less on his line than any back in history. Shaun Alexander was Sanders' opposite -- when his line wasn't working, neither was Shaun. There are infinite degrees of success in-between. How do we tell? Football Outsiders has Adjusted Line Yards, which separate the performances of backs and their lines. It's impossible to split positions in a team game like football, but taking play-by-play and game charting data allows us to get a better sense of which lines are performing up to (and beyond) expectations. In several recent Smarter Stats columns, we've talked about the numbers for positional groups that put a brighter light on team and individual performances.

There's no way to replace the scouting eye, and the statheads aren't trying to do so. There is no "Mega-number" that instantly defines performance -- you still have to train your eye and watch every down. But the more numbers we have to integrate with these performances, the better able we are to understand on-field value. That's true whether your job has you on the field, or torturing a spreadsheet.

Weird Stat of the Week

Through five games, San Diego Chargers receiver Chris Chambers has five touchdown catches on 11 receptions, for a touchdown percentage of 45.5. If Chambers can somehow keep that rate up -- and he scored in four of his five games, he'd finish the 2008 season with 35 catches, 16 touchdowns, and the highest touchdown percentage of any receiver since the 16-game season started in 1978. Here are the top ten single-season touchdown percentages to date with at least 16 catches:

By Doug Farrar  |  October 7, 2008; 8:34 AM ET  | Category:  NFL
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