Second Half Ups and Downs
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With three-fourths of the regular season in the books, who's making a late stretch run, and who's falling behind? Which teams are improving too little, too late, and which franchises are sliding deeper into decline? We know that five teams (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New York Giants, Dallas, Tampa Bay) are on winning streaks of three games or more, and four (San Diego, Detroit, Seattle, St. Louis) have current losing streaks of three games or longer.
When we break the season into halves -- weeks 1 through 9 and weeks 10 through 17 -- we can get a sense of the teams that are starting to surge, and which are falling. The teams below are rated by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here), the primary Football Outsiders statistic, which we've discussed before. DVOA is represented in percentages of efficiency above or below a baseline established from every play of a season. Keep in mind, if you haven't seen DVOA before, that defensive DVOA is better when it's negative, because it measures the ability to stop offensive productivity. These are the biggest upswings and downturns, offensively and defensively, from the halfway point through Week 12.
Biggest Upswing, Offense, Since Week 9
Since we haven't tabulated all the splits for Week 13, New England's second-half total stops with Matt Cassel's two straight 400+-yard passing games, and Brett Favre matched Cassel with two straight games in which he competed nearly 80 percent of his passes. Ben Roethlisberger started to come out of a statistical Neverland in the second half of the season, and young quarterbacks Tyler Thigpen of the Chiefs and Matt Ryan of the Falcons have been putting up solid numbers for a while now -- Thigpen with the use of unconventional formations, and Ryan with a balanced offense and amazing poise for his experience level.
Biggest Downturn, Offense, Since Week 9
What hasn't gone wrong for the Philadelphia offense? Red-zone disasters, iffy play-calling, the unnecessary benching of their franchise quarterback, and Brian Westbrook's injuries have all contributed to the fate of a very talented team that's going to miss the playoffs without some sort of miracle. The Rams and Lions prove that yes, it is possible to be worse than pathetic (the Lions' total doesn't include the Thanksgiving Day Massacre against the Titans), and the Redskins are running in place. The Browns, meanwhile, are just trying to find a reasonably effective quarterback who can stay healthy. And a receiver who doesn't drop half the passes thrown to him would be nice, too.
Biggest Upswing, Defense, Since Week 9
Don't worry, Redskins fans, we're sure that the timing of Oakland's move from 16th to 3rd in Pass defense DVOA just happens to coincide with DeAngelo Hall's departure. That said, you've been warned. Dallas's secondary hasn't been playing much better of late, but their front seven has been spectacular, especially DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff. They've moved from 25th to 3rd against the run. The Bengals and Saints are disappointing defenses finding their way, and the Ravens have passed the Steelers, just barely, as DVOA's best defense, despite giving up 207 yards rushing to the Giants in Week 11.
Biggest Downturn, Defense, Since Week 9
The Dolphins' secondary finally caught up to them, dropping from 10th to 31st in pass defense DVOA in the second half. It's something they'll have to address in the draft as they climb past mere respectability on the way back up. The Steelers and Titans could be victims of regression to the mean -- there don't seem to be any specific outstanding issues waiting to trip them up -- while the 49ers and Bills simply need better personnel in key areas to avoid late swoons.
At the end of the regular season, we'll revisit these first-half/second-half numbers to get a sense of the postseason entrants with the hottest streaks and coldest current temperatures.
By
Doug Farrar
|
December 2, 2008; 10:08 AM ET
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Statistics
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Posted by: Doug Fararr | December 2, 2008 3:08 PM
Given fantasy football's popularity, it would be cool to profile how players vary from week-to-week compared to DVOA. The FO site already tracks (for example) how teams handle different WR positions, but is there a way to evaluate which players seem to outperform the "penalty" of a tough opposing D in a fantasy sense? It's sensible to look for weekly match-ups in advance, but more statistically satisfying to see how players did over a year or more.
Posted by: Spike | December 2, 2008 2:06 PM
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Good question. I know that FO's Bill Barnwell does stuff like that to a point, but I'll run this up the flagpole back at HQ and see what can be done.