DVOA Matchup: Super Bowl Edition
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The Past is (Not) Prologue
Well, it all comes down to this. One of the most remarkably consistent teams against one of the spikiest. The Pittsburgh Steelers never lost two games in a row this season, the Arizona Cardinals lost two in a row three different times. Two of those two-gamers came in the regular season's last six weeks, when Arizona lost laughers to Philadelphia (48-10) and New England (47-7).
While the Steelers are very much the team they were, the current Cards are not.
Championship Round DVOA (Single-game)
If you're new to DVOA, click here for a quick explanation. Click here for the final Weighted DVOA rankings (which really don't tell us much about this game, thanks to the Cardinals!)
It's important to look at not only the stats of our Super Bowl teams, but also the stats they caused. In the NFC Championship game, the Eagles were upended by Larry Fitzgerald's three touchdown catches and a surprising rushing attack. As FO cohort Aaron Schatz pointed out on ESPN.com this week, the Cards were the pass-wackiest team ever to make it to a Super Bowl. The way they went through the playoffs is yet another indicator of their fantastic turnaround. Against the Eagles in the Championship Round, 28 pass attempts to 29 rushes. It was the Eagles, with their 47 passes and 18 runs, who rode imbalance out of the tournament.
Arizona's offensive line, which was a debit in the running game all season (they ranked 30th in Adjusted Line Yards in the regular season) turned it around pretty drastically against the Eagles. I detailed their efforts in last week's Cover-3 column for FO - what impressed me most was their ability to pick up defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's arsenal of blitzes. They were able to do this by winning the power battle up front; their guards and center "out-physicaled" tackles Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley, as well as middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. Of course, the Steelers, with their dizzying set of alignments and nose tackle Casey Hampton manning the point, provide a stiffer challenge.
Cards quarterback Kurt Warner is as good as anyone at getting the ball out his hands in a hurry effectively -- when he's dumping the ball off short, there's generally a reason behind it. In the 2008 postseason, Arizona ranked second in the number of passes to the short left (23), short middle (18), and short right (36). Pittsburgh ranked eighth in yards allowed to the short left (7.44 avg. gain), sixth to the short middle (4.91) and seventh to the short right (4.89). It will be Arizona's intention to match their quantity of short stuff with the quality they have exhibited in the postseason (8.26 per play short left/5.00 per play short middle/6.33 per play short right). Expect to see some stuff in the flats, though the Steelers rank first in DVOA against passes to running backs. Anquan Boldin, perhaps the best yards-after-catch threat in the NFL not named Wes Welker, could be taking home an MVP trophy if the Cards pull this thing off.
The Steelers provide an interesting set of challenges on offense. You'll hear more about Arizona's offense because of all the elite targets, but the Steelers ranked behind only the Cardinals in points per game in the postseason (29.0 to 31.7) and led all playoff teams in average time of possession per game (34:50 to Arizona's third-ranked 33:16) Which Ben Roethlisberger will take sack after sack by holding onto the ball, he'll also make plays few other quarterbacks make. In the AFC Championship win over Baltimore, Big Ben completed less than 50 percent of his passes, but that was against the dominant Baltimore defense.
Arizona has two notable threats against the pass -- rookie cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and strong safety Adrian Wilson. In his last four games, "DRC" has picked off three passes and deflected nine more. Wilson dominated the Eagles game, sacking Donovan McNabb twice, forcing a fumble, and making five other tackles. He's less a traditional safety than a smaller outside linebacker in his style -- while Wilson can cover, he's at his best when he's running downhill in pass pressure and run support.
The running game he'll be facing has been notoriously boom-and-bust all season. Neither team has offensive lines to write home about, though Arizona's has improved recently as previously documented. In the postseason, Pittsburgh has found it challenging to extend drives on the ground -- getting out of the gate has been particularly worrisome. The Steelers have averaged 2.88 yards per carry on their 34 runs of first-and-6 or more, and they have one first down converted on first down. Second-and-3 to 5 is their best bet -- they've run six plays on the ground in the postseason under those conditions and come up with four first downs. Third down has been hit-and-miss. Five running plays, two first downs. Expect the pass on third-and-anything.
How Will the Game Go?
First, throw out what you have heard about Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt and his supposed advantage in that he used to run Pittsburgh's offense -- there's just as much in Pittsburgh's favor with defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau drawing up diabolical defenses against his former staff-mate. Larry Fitzgerald is the one receiver that even the Steelers defense may not have an answer for, but make no mistake -- the Cards have not faced a defense like this all year. The running games are about even in their unpredictability, and Arizona may have a slight edge in that department. Pittsburgh's offense and Arizona's defense are each better than you might think, though not quite as good as they perhaps should be.
I think this game will be closer than some assume. For Arizona, there are two things to exploit -- the short pass, and the occasional draw/delay play. For Pittsburgh, and its defense that is the known equation, it will come down to Ben Roethlisberger. If he can avoid Adrian Wilson's depth charge, and keep away from the big play the other way, the expected result should come about. But in putting everything together for this article, and other analysis I'll be doing through the week, I'd be less than shocked if the Cardinals take the Lombardi Trophy. They may have entered the postseason as one of the worst teams ever to make it, but that's not who they are now.
By
Doug Farrar
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January 29, 2009; 8:10 AM ET
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