The Bart Scott All-Stars
During his first training camp with the New York Jets, former Ravens linebacker Bart Scott insisted to ESPN.com's Tim Graham that the one stat he never wanted to lead the NFL in was total tackles. "What you want to do is limit your reps," Scott said. "You want to lead the league in three-and-outs. You want to play the least amount of plays than anybody in the NFL. That should be your goal, to be No. 1. To have a lot of tackles? That means nothing. I could stand on the field all day and make tackles, but our team isn't going to be very good."
Scott's absolutely right, and we're on his side at Football Outsiders. To that end, we keep two specific stats that reveal the actual value of a tackle: Stops and Defeats. Stops are the total number of plays which prevent a "success" by the opposing offense, which we classify as 45 percent of conversion yardage on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Defeats are plays that stop the offense from gaining first down yardage on third or fourth down, stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a fumble or interception. As opposed to total tackle numbers, which are statistical empty calories in the sense that so many tackles come from the old real estate adage - location, location, location. Going back to 2001, an inside or middle linebacker has led the NFL each season in combined tackles (solo and assists). This makes sense because so many rushing plays right up the gut, right in their collective wheelhouse.
Obviously, having one NFL tackling leader says nothing about your team's defensive efficiency, which is what Scott was implying. So, let's break it down by position for 2008. Who were the most efficient and valuable tacklers last season? Based on percentage of Defeats (minimum 20 plays), here they are ... your Bart Scott All-Stars!
The Seahawks, possessors of a 4-12 record in 2008, should lead the NFL in Defeats from their front four - in addition to Terrill and Mebane, they traded for Redding in the offseason. Peppers, Allen, and Freeney aside, you won't see the defensive end list dominated by sack leaders - leaders in percentage of Defeats are just as likely to come from the other side of the line - the unheralded run-stoppers like Hayward or Brown. That's another aspect of the value in a list of Defeats - lesser-known names show up in unexpected places. Brown had 15 run Defeats in 2008, third for his position behind Trent Cole of the Eagles and Adewale Ogunleye of the Bears.
Porter's career year is reflected here as well. Notice that just about all of the linebackers on this list, with the notable exception of Briggs, are 3-4 linebackers who frequently line up outside the ends. Timmons is the only one who frequently plays inside. Other 4-3 'backers high on this list include Philly's Chris Gocong, Chicago's Brian Urlacher, and Thomas Davis of the Carolina Panthers. Very little surprise among the top safeties, and some names to know from there.
Oh, and Mr Scott himself? He racked up 17 Defeats in 87 plays (19.54%), not bad at all for an inside guy. Good to know he walks it like he talks it...
Rodgers-Cromartie had an outstanding rookie campaign, and Johnson solidified the Oakland secondary opposite Nnamdi Asomugha after the DeAngelo Hall mistake was realized (sorry, Redskins fans...) David was cut by New Orleans because his coverage skills were ill-suited for a man scheme. Winfield and Woodson are two stalwart veterans - Woodson even played safety in a pinch for the Packers last season.
Obviously, the further back in the defense you go, the lower the percentages become. And there's more to any position than Defeats or Stop Rate. But as we go further inside the game, and realize the actual value of things like tackles, the more is revealed. That's what the numbers are all about.
By
Doug Farrar
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September 11, 2009; 4:38 PM ET
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Doug Farrar
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