The League

Smarter Stats: The Blame Game

When teams with great expectations come out of the gate in true Three Stooges fashion, the subsequent finger-pointing is usually rampant, and not always directed at the real culprit. Frustration tends to trump analysis when the team you love can't buy a win and seems out of the playoff race before the season's first month is complete. In the interest of acknowledging the obvious when it applies to the situation and looking beyond the obvious, here are the real reasons that eight disappointing teams can't find their way.

Washington Redskins (1-2)

Surface Problems: Jim Zorn's coaching, and Jason Campbell in general.
Real Problem: The defense can't stop anyone on third down.

As under fire as they've been, you wonder if Zorn and Campbell dream of leaving their current team for an Albuquerque expansion franchise, "Any Given Sunday" - style. Some of the angst is justified - Zorn appears in over his head on the sidelines at times, and Campbell hasn't yet taken that next step - but the most glaring turnaround from 2008 to 2009 for the Redskins is on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the Redskins led the NFL in three-and-outs created with 32.7 percent. Through the first three games of this season, that high-priced Washington defense has allowed third-down conversions 51 percent of the time (22 made on 43 attempts). That was the real story in their 19-14 loss to the Lions; the Redskins allowed 10 of 18 successful third-down conversions, and the Lions enjoyed six first downs overall (conversions on all downs) in their 99-yard touchdown drive in the first quarter. Dan Snyder can replace Zorn and Campbell 100 times, but it won't stop the bleeding on Greg Blache's side of the ball.

Carolina Panthers (0-3)

Surface Problem: Quarterback Jake Delhomme has never recovered from his five-interception meltdown in last year's playoff loss to the Cardinals -- this season, he leads the NFL with seven interceptions in only 91 attempts.
Real Problem: Delhomme's downward spiral is not to be disregarded, but the Panthers' inability to stop the run is the invisible elephant in the living room. Through the first three weeks of the season, Carolina's formerly stout defense ranks 26th in Defensive DVOA, and 30th against the run. It's also possible that new defensive coordinator Ron Meeks' "bend-but-don't-break" scheme is causing the offense to press and go away from the rushing attack that defined them last season. Only five teams have fewer than the Panthers' 71 attempts.

Tennessee Titans (0-3)

Surface Problem: The loss of Albert Haynesworth doomed the Titans' defensive line to failure.
Real Problem: Tennessee actually ranks 11th in Defensive DVOA, third in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards, and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Chris Johnson's 351 rushing yards ranks behind only Adrian Peterson's 357, but the passing game is average at best.The Titans lost their three games by a total of 13 points, and Jeff Fisher's squad is better than this.

Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Surface Problem: Dependence on the Wildcat has ripped the offense apart.
Real Problem: The concept of an over-reliance on gimmickry may apply to some offenses (hello, Philly!), but Miami's offense ranks near the bottom of the league with 4.7 yards per offensive play. In their direct snaps in 2009, the 'Fins have averaged 8.4 yards per play (117 yards on 14 plays).Where they run into trouble is when they dedicate quarterback Pat White to the option -- the rookie doesn't quite have the speed of the pro game down yet.

In the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, we talked about injury luck and turnover luck in the Miami chapter. Last year, the Dolphins led the league in turnover ratio (+17), and they're now near the bottom (-6, which ranks 30th). They benefitted from a roster that went through the 2008 season mostly healthy, and they've already lost quarterback Chad Pennington for the 2009 season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

Surface Problem: A pathetic offense. The Bucs gained a total of 86 yards and five first downs against the Giants last weekend, leading new head coach Raheem Morris to bench quarterback Byron Leftwich in favor of Josh Johnson.

Real Problem: Want an explosive offense in Tampa Bay? Go up against their defense. In their first two games alone, the Bucs gave up five passing touchdowns of 30 yards or more. The only reason that number didn't increase against the Giants is that Eli Manning didn't need to throw a pass longer than 24 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

Surface Problems:The two they overcame to win Super Bowl XLIII -- the offensive line and the running game.
Real Problem: The line might be even worse this year -- the Steelers currently rank 29th in Offensive Adjusted Line Yards and 17th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The issue right now is on the defensive side -- that formerly unassailable squad currently ranks 20th in Defensive DVOA against the pass and eighth against the run.

Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Surface Problem: The Super Bowl Loser's Curse, of course!
Real Problem: Well, no. The real problem is the offense, or the lack thereof. The Cards are scoring 19 points a game in 2008, as opposed to the 26.7 they put up last year. They're dead last in rushing attempts per game (19.0), yards per game (60.7), and near the bottom in yards per carry (3.2). That's less of a surprise than the passing numbers -- Arizona ranks 21st in Passing DVOA after ranking eighth last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Surface Problem: David Garrard hasn't bounced back to his 2007 form after a disappointing 2008.
Real Problem: Garrard is the blame-target in an unfinished and unfocused offense, but the Jags are giving up 281.7 passing yards per game, worst in the league. When your offense puts up 202.7 passing yards per game, you'd better have a dynamic rushing game, and the Jags are in danger of relying too much on Maurice Jones-Drew.

By Doug Farrar  |  September 30, 2009; 2:04 AM ET  | Category:  Doug Farrar , Statistics
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Posted by: Wellsee | October 7, 2009 10:00 PM

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