2009's Surprise Teams
Last week, we detailed the problems associated with the NFL's most disappointing teams, and the real (or at least secondary) reasons for their failures. But for every team that's fallen off the map, there's a surprise team, or a team that has outperformed their expectations. One team in particular has left the league amazed.
Denver Broncos (4-0)
Preseason Expectations: Chaos, destruction, and pain. Pat Bowlen surprised the NFL by firing longtime coach Mike Shanahan and hiring Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and McDaniels surprised most everybody by going on a bit of a rampage. After trying unsuccessfully to engineer a trade for Matt Cassel, McDaniels and Bowlen were left with a very unhappy Jay Cutler. They traded Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton and several draft picks. Little of note was done to restock a defense that finished 31st in DVOA in 2008, and the first-round pick of running back Knowshon Moreno went against Denver's longtime philosophy of great offensive lines and disposable running backs. This team was seen as a disaster waiting to happen.
Why They're Winning: The benefits of an easy schedule and one enormously lucky break cannot be discounted. The Broncos beat the Bengals opening week on the "Immaculate Deflection" touchdown to Brandon Stokley, and their other victories have come against the terrible Browns and Raiders, then the inconsistent Cowboys last Sunday. Still, the defense has benefited from one very valuable addition -- former 49ers head coach and Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who has done the near-impossible in transitioning a weak 4-3 squad into a very effective 3-4 unit.
New Orleans Saints (4-0)
Preseason Expectations: Great offense, woeful defense, in a "lather, rinse, repeat" formula that has plagued the WhoDats through the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. In 2008, New Orleans ranked fourth in Offensive DVOA and 26th in Defensive DVOA. Their pass defense has been particularly woeful in recent years.
Why They're Winning:The Saints finally waived longtime liability Jason David at cornerback, and new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is dialing up creative pressure packages that allow the secondary to breathe once in a while as opposed to hanging back in coverage too long. Through four games in 2009, the Saints have 10 sacks after putting up only 28 last season. Veteran safety Darren Sharper leads the league with five interceptions, and in their win over the Jets last Sunday, New Orleans' defense outscored its offense. That's the recipe for success the Saints' faithful has been hoping for.
New York Giants (4-0)
Preseason Expectations: It's not as if the G-Men were expected to take a big slide -- after all, they ranked in the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive DVOA last year and they took the NFC East -- but there were questions about the post-Plaxico receiver corps and a front seven with a lot of new blood.
Why They're Winning: First, the loss of Plaxico wasn't the death blow people thought. According to Football Outsiders' Bill Barnwell, the Giants actually had a better Offensive DVOA (27.8%) then when he was available (20.6%). And now, the team's unheralded new receivers are starting to take over. Against the Chiefs last Sunday, (the other) Steve Smith's 11-catch, 134-yard, two-touchdown game made him the third-most valuable receiver of the week, according to FO's DYAR numbers. And through three weeks, Mario Manningham had the seventh-best DYAR among all receivers for the season.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Preseason Expectations: Between the "Hard Knocks" curse and the usual front office buffoonery, it seemed like another lost season for the Bengals -- almost by default.
Why They're Winning: The acquisition of running back Cedric Benson has been an unexpected boon, and the Carson Palmer-to-Chad Ochocinco combo is hot again. But it's as much about the under-the-radar guys. Running back Brian Leonard making plays when they're needed. Andre Caldwell making key receptions. The offensive and defensive lines performing at a level we haven't seen since Cincinnati's last playoff berth in 2005. If they can knock off the Ravens next Sunday in Baltimore, they'll have the top of the AFC North all to themselves, and should be taken seriously as a real contender.
New York Jets (3-1)
Preseason Expectations: Fair-to-middling. Prognosticators respected new head coach Rex Ryan from his days as Baltimore's defensive coordinator, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez got a lot of pre- and post-draft love from the analysts, but the fallout of the post-Mangini/Favre drama left the team in an uncertain state.
Why They're Winning: The Ryan defense has been everything the franchise could have hoped for; it's a nasty, complex monster that has confused every quarterback facing it. Through four games, the Jets are third-best in quarterback rating allowed (behind two other surprise teams -- the Saints and Broncos). Sanchez lived up to the hype through this first three games, playing efficiently if not spectacularly, until the New Orleans blitz upended him last Sunday. It was a bad day for a good rookie. Make no mistake, though -- as with Ryan's Ravens, the Jets will go as far as their defense takes them.
San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
Preseason Expectations: Perhaps the best team in the NFC West, which is a bit like being the best musician in Warrant. The endless Michael Crabtree holdout hasn't worked out for either side -- San Francisco doesn't have a desperately needed offensive weapon, and the former Texas Tech receiver doesn't have an NFL career yet.
Why They're Winning: Like the Bengals, the 49ers are one miracle finish away from a spotless record -- in this case, Brett Favre's amazing back-of-the-endzone throw to Greg Lewis. That aside, this team has been playing at a level that is a testament to the motivational abilities of head coach Mike Singletary. Statistically, they've been great on defense -- 10th over all in Defensive DVOA after three weeks, and third against the run. The passing game is still a problem, but Shaun Hill has donned his best "Game Manager" hat and has done his best to lead the offense through the latest Frank Gore injury. More importantly, the defense is making key plays and stops, and capitalizing on that efficiency -- San Francisco's defense scored three times against the Rams last Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Preseason Expectations: Through the seemingly endless preseason Brett Favre drama, the Vikings were thought to be biding their time for the Mississippi Diva for one reason -- the defense is incredible, and Adrian Peterson is one of the most amazing weapons in the game, but quarterback Tarvaris Jackson wore out his welcome after his terrible playoff performance against the Eagles.
Why They're Winning: Favre was the reason with the late throw to Lewis against the 49ers, but as much as he finally popped loose against the Packers on Monday Night Football, that game was more about the defense, and the suffocating pressure it put on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Favre will serve the Vikings best if he plays as a cog, not a superstar. He should follow the example of John Elway, late in his career, when the team around him was just as good as he was.
By
Doug Farrar
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October 7, 2009; 4:15 AM ET
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Doug Farrar
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