Adjusted Line Yards -- the offense
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One of the primary goals of football sabermetrics is also one of its main challenges -- separating individual efforts in the ultimate team sport. Even skill position players depend so much on the efforts of others -- quarterbacks on receivers, running backs on offensive lines, linebackers on the defensive tackles who soak up double-teams and let them shoot the gaps. At Football Outsiders, we've put together a number of proprietary statistics to focus on the importance of line play on both sides of the ball. Adjusted Line Yards, which takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on yardage gained, is the primary stat. We then separate line yards per carry from running back yards per carry.
The 10+ Yards stat separates yardage on plays 10 or more yards downfield -- this places more credit on the shoulder of the running back as he's making plays away from the line. Power and Stuffed stats indicate team success in specific short-yardage and red-zone situations. All FO stats are then adjusted for opponent strength.
Through Week 8 of the 2009 season, the Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards (4.64 per carry) and rank second in running back yards per carry (5.39). The Tennessee Titans rank first in rushing plays of 10 yards or more, but they're 20th in ALY (3.83), and that's over two yards less per carry than their league-leading running back yards per carry (5.98). Their backs are doing most of the work. The Miami Dolphins rank first in Power, meaning that they're best at converting drive-extending or scoring plays in short-yardage situations. The Dolphins also prevent their backs from getting caught behind the line of scrimmage better than any other team.
Which other teams are getting more help from their backs than their lines? And which teams are sunk on the ground without their blockers?
The Titans lead the NFL with an amazing 40 percent of running plays over 10 yards, and the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars aren't far behind at 37 percent each. Teams high on this list share the one common advantage -- dynamic running backs who can make things happen in space. The Kansas City Chiefs aren't on the second list, but they have put up the following ignominious stat: Only eight percent ofhtie running plays have been for 10 yards or more. The Browns, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions (10 percent each) aren't much better. Here's where you find plodders behind lines that would have any running back struggling to succeed.
What about pure smashmouth? Which teams are best at converting short-yardage situations? Let's go back to our Power and Stuffed rankings to find out. Power tells us which teams are best and worst at moving the chains, and drive success is at the root of our stats.
MIA 88%
PHI 83%
ATL 82%
OAK 80%
NYJ 79%
It's pretty amazing, when you think about it. When the Miami Dolphins run on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, they achieve a first down or touchdown 88 percent of the time. Compare and contrast with the bottom-feeders on this list -- starting with the San Diego Chargers, whose red-zone troubles have been well-documented. Here's where it shows up.
SD 35%
BUF 43%
GB 50%
CLE 50%
MIN 54%
Our Stuffed ranking basically works in conjunction with Power, indicating which teams are forced into no-gain or negative plays most and least often.
MIA 13%
PHI 14%
NE 15%
BAL 16%
NYJ 16%
What this tells us is that not only do the Dolphins, Eagles, and Jets transcend the norm when it comes to extending drives, they're just as good at avoiding backslides on every down. Hmmm... maybe Andy Reid should call more running plays?
To further separate the efforts of the offensive line, we keep track of Adjusted Line Yards to each of five areas counted by the NFL's official play-by-play. The table construction gets a bit complex for our size constraints here, but you can check this info out every week at Football Outsiders.
No matter how microscopic we get with stat separation, we're limited by the team aspect of football -- the very thing that makes it great is what stops the kind of statistical analysis you find in a station-to-station sport like baseball, where the efforts of one are less interdependent on the work of others. But Adjusted Line Yards, and the ancillary stats around them, provide important information we can use to see what really passes the eye test.
By
Doug Farrar
|
November 4, 2009; 12:36 AM ET
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Doug Farrar
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Running back
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Statistics
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