Smarter Stats: Divisional DVOA
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Earlier this week, we had a Panel Q & A about the NFL's worst division, and I thought it was time to pull together the early (Week 11) numbers for Divisional DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, Football Outsiders' primary efficiency statistic) as an enhanced reflection of excellence or futility over combined won-loss records. DVOA takes it a step beyond because it's adjusted for situation and opponent, and it's marked as percentages of production above or below the league average. The original question was whether the NFC East was the NFL's worst division, which is surprising when you see that according to DVOA, it's the league's best.
NFC East: 52.2%
The fourth-ranked Eagles (30.4%) hang at the top of the NFC East with admirable balance -- their inconsistent offense ranks 12th, but their defense is second and their special teams ranks fourth. Look for the offense to round into shape pretty soon and the annual Eagles late-season charge to begin. The Cowboys are in the hunt at 18.8%, though it seems that, as it is with every year, everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's already dropped with the Giants (12.4% before their Thanksgiving nightmare against the Broncos), and the Redskins have the division's only negative DVOA at -9.4%. So, they've got that going for them...
AFC South: 30.9%
The 35.9% Colts follow only the Patriots in overall DVOA, and it isn't just Peyton Manning. They have the fifth-best DVOA defense based in part on the play of their rookie cornerbacks. If they can shore up their special teams, the Colts might be unbeatable. The Houston Texans (9.3%) have the same issues that they had last year -- overall defense and red-zone offense -- but Matt Schaub's season is keeping them above the fray. At -1.50, the Jacksonville Jaguars are as average as their numbers indicate, though they have a decent shot at a playoff berth, and the -12.8% Tennessee Titans are the up-and-down kids, starting with six straight losses and rolling off four straight wins since.
AFC East: 28.9%
It's the 39.7% Patriots and everyone else here -- sound familiar? Tom Brady's return has sparked the offense, but remember that the Pats had the best Offensive DVOA in the second half of the 2008 season with Matt Cassel under center; the difference this year is the defense. The 11.7% Dolphins are trying to separate themselves from the pack, but they'll have to figure out how to run their offense without Ronnie Brown. The Jets (-1.6%) have flamed out after a 3-0 start (though they still have amazing cornerback Darrelle Revis), and the Bills, at -20.90%, are bad enough to get their head coach fired -- which has already happened.
AFC North: 10.3%
Here's where it gets close. The division-leading Bengals (8.0%) are actually behind the Ravens (25.4%) and Steelers (18.5%), a reflection of Cincinnati's bad special teams and average ranks on offense and defense -- this is a team that won the games they needed to. On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns rank 31st at -41.6%, which drags the whole division down, but there's a price to be paid for those easy division wins...
NFC South: -4.5%
Here's where we have standouts at both ends, and a bunch of "meh" in the middle. The 4.2% Falcons and -7.4% Panthers are struggling with injuries and capsizing schemes, but that's nothing compared to the fate of the woeful Buccaneers who rank 28th at -33.8%. On top, we have the very dangerous New Orleans Saints, ranked third overall at 32.5%, with their combustible offense and surprising Gregg Williams-led defense.
NFC North: -17.1%
The Pack may be back after their Turkey Day win over the Lions, but they're just catching up to their DVOA numbers. At ninth overall with a DVOA of 24.7%, Green Bay is a decent offensive line away from possible playoff glory. The Vikings aren't just about Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson -- they also have our top-ranked special teams unit. At -17.1%, the Bears are paying for several poor defensive drafts and Jay Cutler's inaccuracy, and the poor Lions are one of the all-time worst teams of the DVOA era, at -52.3%. Remember that the next time Matt Millen pretends to be an "expert" on one of his many broadcasts.
NFC West: -37.8%
For years, the story of the NFC West has been the team on top, and the three schlubs that follow. The St. Louis Rams, then the Seattle Seahawks, and now the Arizona Cardinals, benefit from low-grade divisional opponents on a consistent basis. Right now, the Cards rank 10th at 20.6%, and they're the only team in the division with a positive percentage. The 49ers stick and stay at -2.0% as they try to figure out what kind of offense they want to run, and former bullies Seattle (-17.9%) and St. Louis (-38.5%) have been thoroughly dethroned.
AFC West: -48.4%
The NFL's worst division based on DVOA gets its "magic" primarily from the Chiefs and Raiders. Kansas City's surprise win over the Steelers last Sunday didn't do much for their overall percentage (26.7%), and it would take a lot more than upsetting the Bengals to back the Raiders out of the division-low status at 38.4%. The Chargers (9.9%) and Broncos (6.8%) are battling for the top spot with DVOA that reflects equal parts potential and frustration.
By
Doug Farrar
|
November 28, 2009; 12:07 AM ET
| Category:
Doug Farrar
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NFL
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