Strength of schedule and DVOA
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When forecasting upcoming prospects for teams, strength of schedule is often used as a benchmark for the ease or difficulty with which a team will navigate a full season, or an important run down the stretch. But simple won-loss records tell an incomplete story, at best. The Baltimore Ravens currently stand at 5-4, but they've outscored their opponents, 222-154, and they've lost their four games by a total of 21 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars also stand at 5-4, despite being outscored, 220-181, and losing their four games by a total of 74 points. But these teams look the same in the won-loss column, which is why we need a better measuring stick.
Enter DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), Football Outsiders' per-play stat that measures drive and scoring efficiency, adjusted for opponent. The idea with our statistics is to weigh the real value of plays, and the wins and losses that result from that efficiency, with a more discerning eye. Teams can win or lose in an infinite number of ways - the goal here is to tell the whole story. Compare and contrast the Ravens, ranked fifth in DVOA to the 18th-ranked Jaguars, and those 5-4 records get a bit of separation.
Of the current division leaders, the Arizona Cardinals have the second-easiest remaining schedule - only the Cinderella Bengals have an easier go. The Colts and Patriots, who battled so well last Sunday, have the 15th and 16th-toughest, respectively. The Vikings and Saints rank 20th and 22th in remaining schedule toughness, which makes the NFC home field advantage derby very interesting. Denver has the 27th-toughest, and Dallas is 17th. At this rate, we could see some divisional races wrapped up before December 1!
Here's a closer look at the challenges facing the remaining playoff-possible teams:
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (9-0)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.6% (16th)
The Colts face an interesting complement of teams in the next month -- there's the Ravens this Sunday and the Broncos on December 13. In between those contests, there's a rematch with the Houston Texans, who almost beat them two weeks ago, and the Titans, who are slowly raising their game after am 0-6 start. Sleepers abound, but there isn't a team the Colts can't handle if they're on their game.
Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)
Future Schedule DVOA: -24.5% (32nd)
Well, how's this for easy? Cincy's reward for sweeping the Ravens and Steelers is a remaining schedule that includes the noted Oakland/Cleveland/Detroit trifecta over the next three weeks. if you combined those three teams, the assembled monstrosity probably couldn't outscore or outgain the Bengals' second team. They have the Vikings and Chargers back-to-back starting in mid-December, but they finish off with the Chiefs and Jets.
Denver Broncos (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -5.6 (27th)
With three straight losses and questions about the health of starting quarterback Kyle Orton, the Broncos could use a few marshmallows on the docket. Problem is, they get them in fits and starts -- after the Chargers and Giants, they get the Colts with the Raiders and Chiefs on either side. Denver closes out with the Eagles and Chiefs. It's a run that mirrors their season -- equal amounts encouragement and uncertainty.
New England Patriots (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.8% (15th)
With Tom Brady looking more and more like ... well, TOM BRADY and the Pats' defense starting to round into shape, this would be a good time for New England to look for a higher seed. They have the Jets, Dolphins, and Panthers in the next month, but they also face the Saints in two weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -6.4% (28th)
The Steelers have been up and down all year -- dominant with Troy Polamalu's healthy, and entirely beatable when he isn't. Questions about Polamalu's knee are silenced a bit when you consider that Pittsburgh faces the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in the next month, with only a second-place fight with the Ravens to break up the monotony. They've got a second go-round with the Ravens two days after Christmas, and there will be nothing joyous for the loser of that game with the Bengals sitting atop the AFC North.
San Diego Chargers (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -6.9% (29th)
Norv Turner's Bolts are playing Denver for the division lead this Sunday, and they're on a four-win streak. They still have the Browns, Chiefs, Titans and eminently beatable Redskins on their calendar. It's a good regular-season end run before their traditional postseason debacling.
NFC
New Orleans Saints (9-0)
Future Schedule DVOA: -2.6% (22nd)
The Saints haven't looked terrible impressive lately, but they have two remaining games with the downtrodden Buccaneers, and favorable matchups with the Redskins and Panthers. On the other hand, their Monday Night game with the Pats in the Superdome on November 30 has "upset" written all over it.
Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
Future Schedule DVOA: -1.2% (20th)
Favre's Darlings still have two meetings with the Bears, which is good news for an opportunistic defense -- perhaps Jay Cutler will still be on his five-pick-per-game jags. The Seahawks don't present much of a threat, and the Panthers and Cardinals are beatable. The question-mark games come against the Bengals and in the season finale against the Giants -- New York might be fighting for a playoff berth, and the Vikings may be resting their starter at that point.
Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: 2.3% (17th)
We're not sure what's happened to Dallas' running game, but they have two games in the next week in which to find it, and both (Redskins this Sunday and Raiders on Thanksgiving) should be wins for a team on a hot streak. It's the three-game stretch after that -- against the Giants, Chargers, and Saints -- that will tell us if Wade's 'Boys are the real thing.
Arizona Cardinals (6-3)
Future Schedule DVOA: -16.3% (31st)
Did someone say "vacation"? It's never a good idea to discount your future opponents, but the next two weeks look pretty good for Arizona, with the Rams and Titans coming up. Then, it's a couple of tougher spots with the Vikings and 49ers, followed by the Lions, Rams (again) and Packers. If the cards don't tank it royally the way they did at the end of the 2008 regular season, they should be in good shape. Then again, they did manage to stagger their way to a near-Super Bowl win...
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Future Schedule DVOA: 3.9% (14th)
Here's the team nobody wants to face if they have it all together. The Iggles have the Bears, Redskins and Falcons upcoming, three chances to make hay while the sun shines. After that, things start to clamp down, with the Giants, 49ers, Broncos, and Cowboys in rapid succession.
New York Giants
Future Schedule DVOA: 13.1% (2nd)
Ouch. Only the Panthers have a tougher go the rest of the way according to DVOA. The G-Men still have the Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings to deal with -- bad news for a team that's lost four straight.
By
Doug Farrar
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November 18, 2009; 9:42 AM ET
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