2009-11-19T02:58:17Z Doug Farrar crunches the numbers that really matter tag:views.washingtonpost.com,2009:/theleague/smarterstats/45 Copyright (c) 2009, WashingtonPost.Newsweek Interactive 2009-11-19T02:58:17Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-11-18:/theleague/smarterstats2009/11/smarter_stats_strength_of_schedule.html

When forecasting upcoming prospects for teams, strength of schedule is often used as a benchmark for the ease or difficulty with which a team will navigate a full season, or an important run down the stretch. But simple won-loss records tell an incomplete story, at best. The Baltimore Ravens currently stand at 5-4, but they've outscored their opponents, 222-154, and they've lost their four games by a total of 21 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars also...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-11-12T05:56:46Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-11-11:/theleague/smarterstats2009/11/adjusted_line_yards_defense.html

Last week, we looked at Adjusted Line Yards, Football Outsiders' proprietary statistic, for different NFL offenses. ALY assigns responsibility and value to offensive lines based on the length of a run, the situation, and the opponent. We then drilled down with situational stats that reveal each team's ability to break long plays, extend drives, and avoid negative plays. When you put all those stats together, you get a more complete picture of a line's value...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-11-05T17:47:46Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-11-04:/theleague/smarterstats2009/11/adjusted_line_yards_farrar_nfl_offense.html

One of the primary goals of football sabermetrics is also one of its main challenges -- separating individual efforts in the ultimate team sport. Even skill position players depend so much on the efforts of others -- quarterbacks on receivers, running backs on offensive lines, linebackers on the defensive tackles who soak up double-teams and let them shoot the gaps. At Football Outsiders, we've put together a number of proprietary statistics to focus on the...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-10-29T13:36:39Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-10-28:/theleague/smarterstats2009/10/sack_leaders_pass_rushing_farrar.html

When the Chicago Bears sent a 2010 second-round draft pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for defensive end Gaines Adams, there were many justifiable questions about the price the Bears paid. Adams was the top prospect at his position in the 2007 NFL Draft, having amassed 28 sacks at Clemson, including 22 in his final two collegiate seasons. But he became a disappointment over his early NFL career, with 12.5 total sacks in 2007 and...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-10-21T11:38:21Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-10-20:/theleague/smarterstats2009/10/qb_protection_farrar_brady_rule.html

Does it seem that there have been more roughing-the-passer penalties in 2009 than in recent seasons? That has indeed been the case, but everything is not what it seems. Through the first six weeks of this season, there have been 35 roughing calls, or 5.83 per week. That stands in sharp contrast to the 59 overall in 2008 (3.47 per week over 17 weeks), 61 in 2007 (3.59), and you'd have to back to 2006...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-10-14T11:43:55Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-10-14:/theleague/smarterstats2009/10/brady_rule_patriots_football_outsiders_farrar.html

Quarterback protection has been a hot topic in the early part of the 2009 season. The Baltimore Ravens' October 4 loss to the New England Patriots was marked by two ticky-tack roughing-the-passer penalties -- one against nose tackle Haloti Ngata and one against end/linebacker Terrell Suggs. In both cases, the contact appeared to be borderline incidental, and Suggs looked like he was trying to avoid contact with quarterback Tom Brady's knees when he dove to...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-10-07T09:36:35Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-10-07:/theleague/smarterstats2009/10/smarter_stats_surprise_surprise.html

Last week, we detailed the problems associated with the NFL's most disappointing teams, and the real (or at least secondary) reasons for their failures. But for every team that's fallen off the map, there's a surprise team, or a team that has outperformed their expectations. One team in particular has left the league amazed. Denver Broncos (4-0) Preseason Expectations: Chaos, destruction, and pain. Pat Bowlen surprised the NFL by firing longtime coach Mike Shanahan and...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-30T13:09:45Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-30:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/smarter_stats_the_blame_game.html

When teams with great expectations come out of the gate in true Three Stooges fashion, the subsequent finger-pointing is usually rampant, and not always directed at the real culprit. Frustration tends to trump analysis when the team you love can't buy a win and seems out of the playoff race before the season's first month is complete. In the interest of acknowledging the obvious when it applies to the situation and looking beyond the obvious,...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-23T14:17:40Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-22:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/drew_brees_quarterback_dyar_saints_farrar.html

Two Sundays ago, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees set an opening day record with six touchdown passes against the Detroit Lions in a 45-27 win. There haven't been too many single-game performances better than his. Brees followed that up with an outstanding game against the Philadelphia Eagles - unlike Detroit's, a defense you can take seriously - and he looks very much like the quarterback who came 15 yards short of Dan Marino's single-season...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-16T11:09:36Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-16:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/quarterback_accuracy_beyond_the_ratings.html

When it comes to measuring quarterbacks, the old and confusing rating system has been the standard for a long time. San Diego's Philip Rivers led the NFL with a 105.5 quarterback rating in 2008, but what does that mean? It's an arbitrary number that only means something in the context of other, similar ratings. Does it mean that Rivers was 8.1 "rating points" better than Miami's Chad Pennington, who finished second at 97.4? We suppose...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-11T20:50:52Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-11:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/bart_scott_tackles_stops_defeats.html

During his first training camp with the New York Jets, former Ravens linebacker Bart Scott insisted to ESPN.com's Tim Graham that the one stat he never wanted to lead the NFL in was total tackles. "What you want to do is limit your reps," Scott said. "You want to lead the league in three-and-outs. You want to play the least amount of plays than anybody in the NFL. That should be your goal, to be...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-14T01:30:20Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-10:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/jkhp982qec.html

jkhp982qec...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Emil Steiner 2009-09-05T16:19:49Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-09-05:/theleague/smarterstats2009/09/smarter_stats_covering_the_spread_shotgun.html

Last week, we took a look at the NFL's best and worst shotgun quarterbacks. Now, it's time to expand that view and discuss the best and worst shotgun offenses and defenses overall. Certain teams are just outstanding through the air in shotgun sets -- you'll see the Patriots and Cowboys displaying particular efficiency with shotgun draws, where the quarterback delays the handoff to lure the oncoming defenders into over-pursuing, thus leaving open lanes for a...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-09-05T16:33:12Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-08-27:/theleague/smarterstats2009/08/smarter_stats_covering_the_spread.html

In the NCAA's last few seasons, the spread offense has become more and more popular. Offensive formations that set enemy defenses on their heels with motion, multiple receiver sets, and wide line splits has taken some programs traditionally impacted in their ability to recruit top personnel to a new level. However, several elements of the spread are not effective at the NFL level. Those wide line splits are caved in by better defensive linemen. The...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar 2009-07-29T23:32:10Z tag:washingtonpost.com,2009-07-29:/theleague/smarterstats2009/07/jim_johnson_a_decade_in_review.html

A couple months ago, I wrote a long essay on the life of Pittsburgh Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau for the Maple Street Press Steelers Annual. That piece brought one simple fact into sharp relief - the truly great and revolutionary NFL assistant coaches don't generally get the respect they deserve, and the ones who give decades to their profession and are still at their best now are truly gifted. 2008 may have seen LeBeau's...Please click on the title to continue reading this entry.

Doug Farrar