Archive: Statistics
Strength of schedule and DVOA
Strength of schedule is often used as a benchmark for the ease or difficulty with which a team will navigate a full season. But simple won-loss records tell an incomplete story.
By Doug Farrar | November 18, 2009; 09:42 AM ET | Comments (0)
Adjusted Line Yards -- the defense
Arizona and Pittsburgh lead the way in defensive value yards allowed and taken away.
By Doug Farrar | November 11, 2009; 08:16 AM ET | Comments (0)
Adjusted Line Yards -- the offense
No matter how microscopic we get with stat separation, we're limited by the team aspect of football -- the very thing that makes it great.
By Doug Farrar | November 4, 2009; 12:36 AM ET | Comments (0)
Sack Leaders Aren't Built in a Day
A quick look at the NFL's sack leaders over the last decade tells us that it usually takes time to develop a great pass rusher.
By Doug Farrar | October 28, 2009; 10:38 AM ET | Comments (2)
The Brady Rule Effect
Is the NFL's increased focus on quarterback safety allowing a disproportionate amount of protection to its star quarterbacks
By Doug Farrar | October 14, 2009; 08:00 AM ET | Comments (2)
Smarter Stats: The Blame Game
Here are the real reasons that eight disappointing teams can't find their way.
By Doug Farrar | September 30, 2009; 02:04 AM ET | Comments (1)
Winning's a Brees?
Do incendiary single games lead to outstanding seasons at a rate that would lead us to take them seriously as indicators?
By Doug Farrar | September 22, 2009; 03:18 AM ET | Comments (0)
Quarterback Accuracy: Beyond the Ratings
The QB Rating metric was a handy-dandy shortcut (to what, we're not sure), but it's time to put away the abacus and opt for the exploded view of the game.
By Doug Farrar | September 16, 2009; 07:01 AM ET | Comments (0)
The Bart Scott All-Stars
Total number of tackles mean absolutely nothing. Defenders should care more about total Stops and total Defeats, the rest is just fluff -- here are the best from 2008.
By Doug Farrar | September 11, 2009; 04:38 PM ET | Comments (0)
Covering the Spread, Part Two
Which offenses are most effective in the shotgun formation, and which defenses are best at stopping it?
By Doug Farrar | September 5, 2009; 12:01 PM ET | Comments (0)
Smarter Stats: Covering the Spread Part One
Which quarterbacks are most effective in the shotgun, and which are better off sticking with the traditional setup?
By Doug Farrar | August 27, 2009; 01:48 AM ET | Comments (1)
Jim Johnson: A Decade in Review
Assistant coaches are a woefully underrepresented class in Canton, and this needs to change. Johnson's name wouldn't be a bad place to start.
By Doug Farrar | July 29, 2009; 01:08 AM ET | Comments (0)
Steve McNair: A Statistical Retrospective
Beyond the intangibles that made him such a memorable person and player from a statistical perspective Steve McNair was just about as good as you could get in the early part of this decade.
By Doug Farrar | July 6, 2009; 12:48 PM ET | Comments (3)
The AFC East Draft
Doug Farrar continues his DVOA statistical breakdown of the NFL Draft with the Dolphins, Jets, Bills and Patriots.
By Doug Farrar | July 4, 2009; 02:38 AM ET | Comments (0)
The NFC North Draft
Doug Farrar continues his DVOA statistical breakdown of the NFL Draft with the Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings.
By Doug Farrar | June 30, 2009; 02:05 AM ET | Comments (0)
The AFC North Draft
Doug Farrar continues his DVOA statistical breakdown of the NFL Draft with the Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Steelers.
By Doug Farrar | June 26, 2009; 10:46 AM ET | Comments (0)
The NFC South Draft
Doug Farrar continues his DVOA statistical breakdown of the NFL Draft with the Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers.
By Doug Farrar | June 24, 2009; 04:31 AM ET | Comments (0)
The AFC South Draft
DVOA breakdown of the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars draft picks going into the 2009 season.
By Doug Farrar | June 5, 2009; 08:26 AM ET | Comments (0)
The NFC West Draft
Doug Farrar continues his by-division statistical look at every team's first pick.
By Doug Farrar | May 29, 2009; 10:13 AM ET | Comments (1)
The AFC West Draft
In the first of an eight-part offseason "Smarter Stats" series, Doug Farrar looks back at the draft by division.
By Doug Farrar | May 21, 2009; 11:21 AM ET | Comments (0)
Wildcat Widens Roles in NFL
What's so special about the Wildcat, and why has it worked so well? It's basically a derivation of the old single-wing, and the player receiving the ball from center in a shotgun set has multiple options. As Lee explained it on CSTV in 2007 (and as I detailed for Football Outsiders after the Miami win over New England), there are three primary plays:
By Doug Farrar | March 4, 2009; 12:03 AM ET | Comments (0)
Harrell's Folly: The Spread Offense in the NFL
From Andre Ware to Alex Smith, the NCAA has been throwing system quarterbacks in pass-heavy, shotgun schemes to the NFL for decades, and the NFL has been chewing them up and spitting them back out the whole time. While the college ranks can support formations in which five-receiver sets and minimal blocking allow protection problems to be overwhelmed by aerial advantages, the NFL is a faster, far more complicated, and far more physical game. When those same quarterbacks try the pros for size, they find that their inability to emply proper mechanics leave them ill-equipped for their new surroundings.
By Doug Farrar | February 24, 2009; 08:07 AM ET | Comments (0)
The Five Linemen
For the second straight year, the NFL draft class is full of talented linemen. Maybe not to the level it was last year, when eight were taken in the first round and Denver's Ryan Clady had one of the better...
By Doug Farrar | February 19, 2009; 11:42 PM ET | Comments (0)
Smarter Stats All-Pros -- Offense
From quarterback to center here are the statistically superior offensive players of the 2008 season.
By Doug Farrar | February 4, 2009; 12:00 AM ET | Comments (0)
DVOA Matchup: Super Bowl Edition
Pittsburgh's offense and Arizona's defense are each better than you might think, though not quite as good as they perhaps should be.
By Doug Farrar | January 29, 2009; 08:10 AM ET | Comments (0)
The Worst Winners
According to the Pythagorean Theorem, the Cards have about as much business being in the Super Bowl as Johnny Knoxville has at the Inaugural Ball.
By Doug Farrar | January 22, 2009; 01:37 PM ET | Comments (4)
DVOA Matchup: Conference Championship Edition
It's quite certain that Arizona's the Cinderella here.
By Doug Farrar | January 13, 2009; 07:20 AM ET | Comments (0)
DVOA Matchup: Divisional Playoff Edition
The divisional playoff round may have some familiar match-ups, but according to Doug's numbers, there could be some surprises.
By Doug Farrar | January 6, 2009; 01:58 AM ET | Comments (0)
DVOA Matchup: Wild-Card Edition
Ah, the postseason. The focus narrows, the intensity increases, and we don't have to watch the Lions anymore.
By Doug Farrar | December 30, 2008; 10:28 AM ET | Comments (0)
No Holds Barred?
The better the defense the less likely their opponents will be called for holding.
By Doug Farrar | December 23, 2008; 10:45 AM ET | Comments (1)
Penalties for Potential Playoff Teams
Breaking down the playoff potential teams, the NFL's five most frequently called infractions.
By Doug Farrar | December 16, 2008; 02:11 AM ET | Comments (1)
Divisional DVOA, The Sequel
Statistics help make sense of the volatile NFC East and NFC South.
By Doug Farrar | December 9, 2008; 11:11 AM ET | Comments (0)
Second Half Ups and Downs
With three-fourths of the regular season in the books, who's making a late stretch run, and who's falling behind?
By Doug Farrar | December 2, 2008; 10:08 AM ET | Comments (2)
Easy Targets
Last week we dealt with the NFL's best pass defenses, this week we reveal the worst situational defenses.
By Doug Farrar | November 25, 2008; 01:02 PM ET | Comments (0)
Hard Targets
Ranking pass defenses against situational and opponent strength.
By Doug Farrar | November 18, 2008; 12:43 PM ET | Comments (0)
Divisional DVOA Rankings
DVOA shows a major shift in power from AFC to NFC.
By Doug Farrar | November 11, 2008; 12:39 PM ET | Comments (4)
Ten Great Assistants
Ten coaches who make a big difference on their teams, despite the fact that most of them have never been coordinators.
By Doug Farrar | November 4, 2008; 02:32 AM ET | Comments (3)
Seven Week 7 Awards
The Midseason awards column is the last desperate act of the idea-impaired football writer.
By Doug Farrar | October 28, 2008; 08:59 AM ET | Comments (0)
The Curse of 370, Part 2
Like, what does it all MEAN, man?
By Doug Farrar | October 24, 2008; 11:52 AM ET | Comments (5)
The Value of Rushing Titles
Do NFL rushing champions require that the majority of their yards come against creampuff defenses?
By Doug Farrar | October 14, 2008; 02:00 AM ET | Comments (4)
