Sunday Line Chatter, Week 11: Games We Want to Watch
Baltimore (+7) at N.Y. Giants
Des: not a lot of respect for the Ravens in that line. or just a ton of respect for the Giants
Dave: So we gonna pick this the week for Flacco to turn rookie, again?
Matt: I think this one could be kind of fascinating.
Dave: Giants' pass rush vs. rookie QB, Ravens' run defense vs. Giants' run defense--pretty good matchup
Matt: Baltimore's four straight wins have come against Miami, Oakland, Cleveland and Houston, tho. Not exactly teams you expect to see playing in late January. Or early January, for that matter.
Dave: Giants' run offense, I mean, but their run D vs. the Ravens' rushing offense isn't bad, either
Des: Yeah, I could see the Ravens being one of the few teams that could keep "Earth, Wind and Fire" in check, but can the Ravens run the ball? They have to take the pressure off Flacco
Matt: I'm pretty sure he has never faced a sacktacular defense such as the Giants'
Dave: Still the Ravens have scored 27 points in four straight games, which is impressive b/c the franchise has never, ever done that before
Des: and Flacco has faced the Steelers, who are No. 1 in sacks. of course, he lost, but only by 3
Matt: Also, the third straight road game for the Ravens.
Dave: And the Colts' game is their only bad loss.
Des: Flacco doesn't throw turnovers, which is unusual for a rookie, but fits right into what B-more wants to do.
Matt: Again, he hasn't faced a defense like this before. The two good defenses the ravens have faced, the steelers and titans, they lost both and couldn't score more than 20 points.
Des: or I should say that he hasn't thrown a pick in his past four games. he did have seven in his first five, but that was ages ago. Obama was still a senator in those days!
Dave: at pittsburgh, the ravens lost by three. against the titans, the ravens lost by three. so doesn't that mean that even if the giants are twice as good as those guys, the ravens still cover?
Dave: I'm done overlooking the Ravens. I'll take em
Matt: They only covered against the steelers.
Dave: but they lost by three in both. point is, they kept it close
Des: I'm a little concerned about the Ravens' pass defense, tho. I'll take the Giants to throw the ball effectively
Matt: I'll take the Giants. Ravens must be tired after too many road games, and the meadowlands is probably the last place you want to play the third one in a stretch of three straight.
Dave: y'know, the giants are 7-points favorites, which is more than double than 3
Des: yeah, I think we both got it when you alluded to that fact earlier
Denver (+6 1/2) at Atlanta
Dave: Denver is a garbage fraud team. Falcons. Done.
Matt: Could you elaborate on that, please?
Dave: matt didn't
Dave: no
Des: I think it's high time I decided that the Falcons are for real
Matt: Falcons aren't the strongest against the pass, which is what the broncos are going to do. over and over and over and over and over and over over.
Des: my question is: How much have the Broncos players beefed up security in their locker room? After all, their bags are suddenly liable for a pilferin'
Matt: Falcons have given up 10 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. only four other teams can say that, including the broncos, natch.
Des: and the Broncos figure to pass a lot, what with their near-complete lack of running backs. Oh, but they do have a familiar face back in the fold
Matt: terrell davis?
Des: close, but think thief-ier
Matt: oh right, Tatum Bellhop.
Des: ding! glad we could explain for the readers what my earlier comment was getting at, since matt was way too determined to make his dumb point about passing stats
Matt: god forbid, actually using past performance as an indicator of future performance.
Des: the Broncs are going to play with one eye on the game and one on their Samsonites
Dave: It's much more accurate to say the Broncos stink, than the Falcons have rushed for seven yards or more in 10 of their last 36 second downs. Easier too.
Des: and even if Atlanta is suspect against the pass, it looked pretty stout last week against Drew Brees, and Jon Abraham should be in Jay Cutler's interception-throwing grill plenty
Matt: whatever. i guess I'll take the falcons.
Dave: you bulldoze away at that passing stat, then you take the falcons?!
Matt: it's all part of my grand plan.
Des: I, too, will take the Falcons. In fact, strike up that loping, percussive beat, because... I feel it! I like it! Lock it! Lock it! Falcons!
Minnesota (+4) at Tampa Bay
Des: at first glance, I thought this seemed like a lot of points for the Bucs to give, but if you think take away the three for being the home team, then Vegas is saying they're 1 point better, which sounds about right
Matt: Bucs are much better at home than on the road. Vikings are much worse on the road than at home. Minny's only road win came in a dome.
Dave: The bucs are 4-0 at home, having won none of them by less than nine. The Vikings are 1-3 on the road.
Des: I don't know if Gus Frerotte's confidence was shaken after last week's effort against Green Bay, but it should be
Dave: Purple Jesus has been walking on purple water lately, but you know what will sink him?
Des: what's that, Dave?
Des: Pewter water?
Dave: The Bucs' good-enough run defense (11th overall) and the overwhelming weight of a giant, unshakeable lock around his neck
Dave: Ka-CHUNK. That's a Bucs lock
Des: ooh, a lock around Peterson's neck, that's tough. The Vikes should think about giving more carries to Chester Taylor
Matt: or would he have to wear the lock, as well?
Dave: I'm confused by that statement coming from you, Des
Dave: And Matt, you're right. All Vikings will wear matching locks.
Matt: in any case, I'm going with the bucs. vikes are awful on the road.
Des: yeah, as an AP fantasy owner I want All Day to live up to the nickname. and I am a little concerned about Tampa's ability to run the ball, too
Des: But I need to make up some ground on youse two, and I think this game will be close. Therefore, I take the Vikes
Chicago (+3 1/2) at Green Bay
Des: It's still hard to write this, but the possible return of Kyle Orton would be huge for Chicago
Dave: why is the bears' pass defense so bad?
Des: it is bad. the teams are mirror opposites on defense. Green Bay can't stop the run, but it is uncannily good against the pass
Matt: yeah, they allowed kerry collins to pass for a lot of yards. that's just awful.
Dave: that part i get, b/c the bears were putting everybody four yards from the line to stop the run. it's the fact that everyone's passing on them
Dave: And yet, I still don't trust the Packers. I'm this close to predicting Matt Forte runs for 200 on them
Des: I think Orton will play, and that, plus Forte having his way with the Packers' porous run defense, should be enough to keep the game close. Bears
Matt: bears have enough to keep it close enough. chicago.
Dave: So for the sake of me making up my mind, let's say "this close" ends up being 185. and that should be good enough. bears
Des: might be some snow in that game, that would be cool
San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh
Des: Ben Roethlisberger has been a big, huge, hairy interception machine of late
Dave: Another lightning-round style pick for me: There is no way I would every pick the sorry fraud Chargers to cross the country and cover. Steelers
Matt: you really don't like teams from the AFC West.
Matt: The Chargers went to Miami (a warm place, like San Diego), they lost and didn't cover. The Chargers went to Buffalo, they lost and didn't cover. More of the same here. Steelers.
Des: yeah, dave, you summarily dismissed the Chargers and Broncos -- I cringe at what you'll say about the Raiders and Chiefs
Dave: you might be surprised!
Des: but the point is well taken -- the West is soft to begin with, and asking it to travel East is a lot. I will agree with the Steelers pick. they should be getting Willie Parker back, too.
Dave: how do you like my saucy teaser?
Des: I liked it until you described it as a saucy teaser.
By
David, Des and Matt
|
November 14, 2008; 2:16 PM ET
| Category:
Game Previews Week 11
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