The League

Sunday Line Chatter, Week 15: Games We Want to Watch

Buccaneers (+3) at Falcons

larimerd2000: Another potentially regrettable 3-point line
Matt Bonesteel: Three more of those TK this week. Yay!
Matt Bonesteel: So Larimer is taking the Bucs.
Matt Bonesteel: This we know.
larimerd2000: So I'll trot the stat of the week: NFC South teams are 24-2 at home this season
larimerd2000: You'll remember that I was the only one of us to take the home teams in last week's NFC South games. I believe that was the difference in our weeks.
bielerd: yeah, after pointing out last week how NFC South teams always win at home, I went ahead and took the Bucs at Carolina. That didn't work out so well.
bielerd: I don't remember that, but I'm sure you're happy to remind us
Matt Bonesteel: Ok, so which theory will you go with: above-.500 team getting points or home NFC South team?
larimerd2000: Now that's a dilly of a pickle
Matt Bonesteel: The Bucs were simply emasculated by the Panthers' running backs on Monday.
Matt Bonesteel: And the Falcons are second in the league in rushing.
bielerd: I think the short week actually helps the Bucs in that regard, as they should play with a lot of anger over their recent embarrassment on national TV
larimerd2000: I would lean toward taking the plus-.500 team getting points, esp. since it has a lot to prove this week, but then, they also violate another tout rule of thumb by being on a short week.
bielerd: way to post that remark right after mine
larimerd2000: I think the Bucs D was an aberration last week. Before that game they had allowed one 100-yd. rusher and one rushing TD all season
larimerd2000: Maybe one of those things where you're so geeked up you forget to tackle. You're just hitting.
bielerd: Then there's the fact that, every year since 2003, the last-place team in the NFC South has gone on to win it the following season. That team is the Falcons, so they are obviously destined to overtake both the Bucs and Panthers. Right?
larimerd2000: D. It is written
Matt Bonesteel: Also, Luke McCown may start for the Bucs.
Matt Bonesteel: He's taken the majority of snaps in practice this week.
bielerd: Interesting. Well, I was leaning Atlanta's way, so maybe that seals it. In fact, it does. Falcons
Matt Bonesteel: It's hard to go against 24-2. Falcons.
bielerd: Atlanta could win by one or two points, of course. And this does figure to e a close game.
larimerd2000: I was gonna take the Bucs on a hunch but this McCown news is news to me
bielerd: it's not a definite, Garcia might play
Matt Bonesteel: Garcia was limited in practice Thursday. This could be one of those Clinton Portis things that have been such a smashing success for the Redskins.
larimerd2000: oh, Flacons, I guess.
Matt Bonesteel: ah, the Flacons. I can't wait till they play the Boncos.
larimerd2000: Maybe that was in part to annoy Des, who hates unanimous picks

Giants (+3) at Cowboys

bielerd: I think we now have a better idea of why the Giants were so eager to banish Plax from the premises. Diva WRs are trouble.
larimerd2000: The Cowboys impressed me more than they had all season last week. Then they started acting like it was a playoff game
Matt Bonesteel: Jacobs and Hixon could be limited or out for the G-Men. That's a whole buncha offense.
larimerd2000: Yeah, I would locked the G-Men if not for the Jacbos news in particular
bielerd: funny, just a week ago you two were wondering how you could ever pick against the Giants, even as a heavy favorite in a division game. Now they're getting points!
Matt Bonesteel: And Eli looked like the Bad Old Eli last week. It was as if he'd never experienced wind before.
bielerd: and Marion barber is still gimpy
larimerd2000: I just don't see how the Cowboys could be favored, at any rate. they have, at most, two wins over good teams this year
bielerd: Normally, one could dismiss TO's behavior as just more of Owens being Owens, and the Cowboys always seemed like a team that could shrug it off. But now TO seems to have gotten into the ears of Williams and Crayton, and other teammates are unhappy
larimerd2000: I think the TO stuff is, to this point, overblown. As is nearly everything with the Cowboys
Matt Bonesteel: Also, the Giants' once-vaunted pass rush has only six sacks in their last five games, and four of those came against the Redskins.
bielerd: I dunno, it's one thing for TO to complain, as he always thinks he's open and should get the ball more, it's another thing to convince his fellow WRs that Romo and Witten are conspiring against all of them
larimerd2000: It's all part of the ESPN weather system. ESPN has a person assigned to bait TO at all times, then is poised to plaster the story across all platforms. "Hey, TO! say something stupid! Do you have anything contorversial to say?"
bielerd: That's the thing, though, it's not just TO this time.
Matt Bonesteel: The ESPN guy probably prank calls him: "TO, this is Tony. You suck!"
larimerd2000: I repeat: Meh.
bielerd: anyway, I think you guys can see where I'm leaning in this game. Add in the fact that teams who play the Steelers, and receive their ritual beating from Pittsburgh, are 4-8 in their next game, and I'll take the Giants
Matt Bonesteel: I gave everyone reasons to pick against the Giants, yet I just can't do it. G-Men.
larimerd2000: Anyway, the Giants are coming off their worst game of the year, while the Cowboys are coming off their best game of the year.
bielerd: so who do ya got?
larimerd2000: And yet I can't pick the Cowboys either. After all, their best game ended in a collapse. Giants.

Broncos (+7 1/2) at Panthers

Matt Bonesteel: whole lotta points.
bielerd: letdown game, anyone? This falls between the Panthers' de-pantsing of the Bucs for the division lead and a conference showdown w/ the Giants, in a short week, no less
larimerd2000: Yes, yes!
Matt Bonesteel: Denver, in its last two road games, has been underdogs of 6.5 and 7.5 points. They won both straight-up.
larimerd2000: yes, yes!
Matt Bonesteel: The Broncos' rushing defense is abhorrent, however.
Matt Bonesteel: And they're down to begging Terrell Davis to return at RB.
bielerd: but just because it's a short week, you wouldn't expect the Panthers to just forget how to run the ball. and last time I checked, the Broncos stink at stopping the run. They're pretty weak against the pass, too
larimerd2000: You guys made my case for me, and now that you're backing off it I need to step in. It's too many points, esp. for a team in a letdown game. And that Panthers' defense remains strangely absent. Injuries at RB haven't slowed the Broncos' offense much yet.
bielerd: at least Brandon Marshall is psyched about the Broncos' RB situation. He referred to Tatum Ball, or "T-Speed" as he called him, as a "premier back" in this league. A premier back who got cut by the Lions and was doing something like working at a cellphone stand at a mall before Denver grabbed him off the street
Matt Bonesteel: This is true: Tatum Bell was manning a cellphone kiosk at a mall.
Matt Bonesteel: Not a cellphone store. A KIOSK!
bielerd: I guess Tatum's Ma Bell would have been proud
Matt Bonesteel: But I'll take the Boncos anyway.
larimerd2000: Witness the resurrection of the Bellhop. Ka-CHUNK. That's a gamblin' Broncos lock.
Matt Bonesteel: It's better than that guy on the Dolphins who was working at Arby's, I guess.
bielerd: The Panthers are an up-and-down team, but they are a very up team at home. I just have a hunch here they'll keep up the dominant rushing attack. Panthers

Vikings (+3) at Cardinals

larimerd2000: Speaking of letdown games
Matt Bonesteel: The battle for the No. 3 seed!
Matt Bonesteel: It doesn't have quite the same ring as the Red River Shootout.
larimerd2000: The WIlliams Wall won't be leveled this season. As if there was much doubt once it went to federal court
bielerd: I was going to say that it would be nice to know if Gus Frerotte was going to play, but then I realized how strange it was to make the case that starting Gus would be a mark in a any team's favor
larimerd2000: Jackson's gonna start
Matt Bonesteel: T-Jack, as I call him at our weekly bridge game, actually was non-horrible last week. That was against the Lions.
bielerd: the same Lions who make every QB they play (apart from Gus) look like the best QB that week. This is an oddly low line, considering that Jackson was looking like the starter all week and that Peterson is no lock to trample the Cards' fairly respectable defense
Matt Bonesteel: The Vikings are good against the run, but the Cardinals don't run anyway, so that's a wash.
bielerd: You know what? I was going to lock another team, but I'm starting to hear some familiar strains here, a loping beat, an insistent chant...
bielerd: I feel it! I like it! Lock it! Lock it! Cards
Matt Bonesteel: Forget this. I can't trust any team that failed to cover against the Lions--TWICE--this season. Especially in a road game against a semi-respectable team. Cardinals.
larimerd2000: The Cardinals give up an unbelievable number of passing TDs, but they can get away with it against the Vikings. And they're quite good at home. Save the letdown for next week. I'll also take the Cards.

Bills (+7 1/2) at Jets

Matt Bonesteel: I'm guessing the team you were planning to lock is playing in this game, Des?
bielerd: Yes, here's the team I was going to lock. The Jets, that is. I foresee a big bounce-back effort from them
larimerd2000: Someone's bound to stop staggering here
bielerd: not the J.P Losman-led, Dick "Six Minutes" Jauron-coached Bills
Matt Bonesteel: The Bills seem demoralized. I think that Canada game was an embarrassment to them.
larimerd2000: Yeah, Losman looked just awful, and he'll probably start again
bielerd: yeah, they should hold a maple leaf over their nether regions and hide their shame
Matt Bonesteel: The Jets, meanwhile, merely were taking a two-week siesta to rest up for their Week 17 matchup with the Dolphins, which will decide the division.
Matt Bonesteel: Actually, that'll be a four-week siesta after they roll over the Bills and Seahawks. Jets.
bielerd: yes. that's what they were doing. for whatever reason, the Jets have all sorts of trouble w/ teams from the otherwise terrible West divisions. Less trouble in their own division
larimerd2000: I was trying to think of a reason to take the Bills given all those points and the Jets' bad couple of weeks, but I can't. Jets also
bielerd: I'll happily take the Jets here, but next week I'll likely take the Seahawks at home against Gang Green

By David, Des and Matt  |  December 12, 2008; 2:44 PM ET  | Category:  Game Previews Week 15
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