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Super Bowl Chatter, Take 1: Who Ya Got?

Dave: why, hello!
Matt: fancy meeting you two here.
Des: f-o-o-t-b-a-l-l-? what is this odd pastime?
Dave: So, in honor of the Super Bowl, let's do things a little differently, shall we?
Des: ooh, I'm game!
Matt: ch-ch-ch-ch-chaaaanges.
Des: Of course, we're already doing things differently than we did last week
Des: when -- hello -- didn't have a chat
Dave: This is true. Last week we did nothing, which means I didn't win the pick-em outright for once
Matt: it's really a 100 percent swing in the other direction.
Des: my head is spinning. although that may have more to do with my traditional breakfast margarita
Dave: So of course we'll pick the winner, but what's the Super Bowl without prop bets? And well pick a few of those, thanks to our friends at Bodog. Bodog: Gambling is cool! So let's go. Who ya got?

Cardinals (+7) vs. Steelers

Matt: Whole lotta points, there.
Dave: I'm a little surprised the line hasn't come down, since it seems like sentiment for the Cards is gaining steam
Matt: Didn't it open at like Steelers -10, then immediately plummet?
Des: Yes, when everyone realized that Kurt Warner was THE story angle for the week
Dave: I think he's absolutely a Hall of Famer if Arizona wins
Des: I agree, especially, obviously, if he has a huge game and/or is named MVP
Dave: Largely because I don't expect Arizona to win, and if he can get two titles with two such long-shot, woebegone franchises, he should be in
Matt: Absolutely.
Des: and it seems like he has to have a huge game for the Cards to win. it ain't gonna happen on the strength of their running game and shutdown D
Des: you know, the ways it will happen for Pittsburgh
Dave: Now it is my turn to agree
Dave: For one thing, Arizona will have to take an early lead. They have to put some pressure on Pittsburgh to keep up
Matt: Just throwing this out there: The last time someone covered such a big spread in the SB was the Broncos (-7 1/2) over the Falcons in 1998 or whenever that was.
Dave: How many spreads this big have there been since then?
Matt: Actually, belay that. Colts covered minus-7 two years ago.But still, it's not usually done.
Matt: A big favorite to cover, that is.
Matt: Five of the last six spreads have been a touchdown or more.
Matt: And six of the last eight.
Des: but even though we've had a nice run of competitive Super Bowls in this decade, the average margin of victory is in double-digits, just as it has been in every other decade
Dave: Huh. But can we agree that the best team usually wins the Super Bowl?
Des: not last year, but yeah
Des: I mean, if you go back through all the Super Bowls, there are very few upsets
Dave: What I'm getting at is the Steelers are the better team. I'm not one of the people saying Arizona is a fluke; it earned its way, but the only advantage it has is at wide reciever, and maybe quarterback.
Dave: And I think quarterback is even, since Big Ben and Warner are apples and oranges
Matt: Don't forget the coaching: Whiz and Grimm know how LeBeau thinks. Of course, it could go the other way, too, but the Steelers didn't have nearly the weapons the Cardinals have now.
Des: well, I wouldn't say the Steelers' cupboard is bare. Roethlisberger is pretty good, Ward and Holmes are pretty good and Parker is pretty good
Des: pretty good analysis on my part, eh?
Matt: The Steelers: They're good! trenchant.
Matt: That'll be the title of the NFL Films season highlight DVD.
Des: Sure, they're not great, like we could say Fitzgerald and maybe Boldin are great, but Pittsburgh is perfectly capable of scoring points
Matt: I see a definite lean on the part of youse two.
Dave: The Steelers' running game is much better, their defense is much better, their offense as a whole is not better, but it's not bad, and it's largely healthy. I think they win, and I more importantly, I think they cover.
Matt: So you're pretty much saying the Steelers win big?
Dave: I'm betting they win handily.
Des: I have picked the Cardinals to cover in every round of the playoffs so far, but I think I have to forsake them now in the final hour. 37-year-old Kurt Warner is a great story, but I think there will be no play for Mr. Gray, as this game is Just for Men, i.e., the Steelers D, which I think will score a defensive touchdown much like in the AFC championship game, boosting Pitt's margin into double digits. Steelers
Dave: If the Cardinals score early and/or often, they have a shot. But I like the Steelers. They have a championship formula.
Des: grecian formula?
Dave: Had I known what tack you would take, I would have said Grecian formula
Des: color me surprising!
Matt: I will be the contrarian here. I think the Cardinals, will their weapons on offense and knowledgeable coaching staff and bacon-scented Whiff of Destiny on them, at least keep this close. I see both teams trying a trick play, but only the Cards being successful at it. I see Edge James being used effectively for about two series and then cast off to the bench. Cardinals, please.
Matt: In fact, I think they're gonna win outright.

Over/under (47 total points)

Matt: Seems a bit low, no?
Dave: If you check the Super Bowl preview page, you'll see that I picked 47 total points
Matt: Last four SB's have gone under, BTW.
Des: wow, Dave, looking for the push, huh?
Dave: I think it seems a bit low if you're picking the Cardinals. Which of course you are.
Matt: Including 2006 (Steelers-Seahawks), when the number was...47.
Dave: Would it be unsporting of me to take the push? Or would it mean I have the courage of my convictions? Or that I'm an idiot, because he who tries to pick the exact score is never, ever right?
Matt: Well, since I've picked the Cardinals to win by something like 29-24 on the Super Bowl preview page, guess I have to go with the over here. Both teams are capable of scoring, and only one has a truly superb defense.
David: I don't want to blow the computer mind of the predictive widget we have set up, and I took the Steelers, so I'll take the under. 46 points will be scored.
Des: most sporting of you, David
Des: for the season, Pittsburgh averaged 21.7 points scored and the Cards 26.7, so that puts them into Over territory. Plus, I have predicted a final score of 34-17 (Steelers, natch) so I will, in fact, take the Over.
Matt: You just don't cross the predictive widget.
Des: you wouldn't like the widget when it's mad

By David Larimer  |  January 28, 2009; 11:51 AM ET  | Category:  NFL Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati  
Previous: Chatter, Take 1: AFC Championship | Next: Super Bowl Chatter, Take 2: Prop Bets!

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